Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
687 FXUS61 KPHI 280321 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1121 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses through our region tonight into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure builds through the region Tuesday. Low pressure passes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure returns to close out the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are winding down ahead of an approaching cold front. Although SB CAPE values are up around 100 J/kg, SB CIN values are up to 100 J/kg as well. Some patchy fog may develop just prior to the passage of the cold front, as surface dew points are still well in the 60s, and the ground will be wet from earlier rainfall. A secondary cold front will pass through later in the day on Tuesday. Temperature gradient across either front isn`t significant, so temperatures on Tuesday may be close to what occurred on Monday. However, the big change will be noticed in the humidity. Surface dew points drop from the upper 60s/low 70s on Monday to the upper 50s/low 60s on Tuesday. Conditions will be mostly dry on Tuesday, isolated storms are possible in the southern Poconos as a lagging mid and upper level short wave trough slides just northwest of the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... That upper trough will be over the Northeast/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic for the mid-week period. A short wave trough will dive into the base of the trough Tuesday night, and surface low pressure develops over the Appalachians. This low will the pass through the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Showers will become likely along with scattered thunderstorms for most of the area Wednesday. With highs generally in the mid to upper 70s and dew points mainly in the mid to upper 50s, SB CAPE looks to be minimal, generally up around 500 J/kg and highest 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be 35-45 kt, mainly over southern New Jersey and Delmarva. So while thunderstorms are possible, there does not look to be a widespread severe weather outbreak at this time. Showers taper off Wednesday night as low pressure departs. Another shortwave trough is expected to cross on Thursday, but by then, moisture will be very limited, so only have a slight chance of showers and storms at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The Long Term period should mostly be dry as surface high pressure builds over the area. Upper trough departs over the weekend and will be replaced by mid- level ridging. Conditions should remain dry into the weekend with the next system approaching early in the new week. Cooler Friday with below normal temperatures, and then temperatures return to normal levels over the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...SHRA/TSRA continue to wind down. Some CIG/VSBY restrictions possible until the cold front passes through the region. Otherwise, VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kt become W. Moderate confidence overall. Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Westerly winds 10 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday...Sub-VFR conditions Wednesday in SHRA/scattered TSRA. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are below Small Craft Advisory on NJ ocean waters, so will go ahead and cancel the SCA that was in effect. Winds turn W around 10 kt late tonight. Lingering thunderstorms will end. A few wind gusts to 30 kt and a few lightning strikes are possible. Outlook... Tuesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected through the week. VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms expected on Wednesday. Rip Currents... For Tuesday, winds will shift to more of a W to SW flow. There will continue to be a MODERATE risk for dangerous rip currents at NJ beaches and a LOW risk at DE beaches. For Wednesday, it appears that most of the region should see a LOW risk for rip currents. However, with the unique bathymetry of Altantic County, the risk there may be MODERATE. As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches this holiday weekend if venturing out into the water. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Johnson/MPS NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS SHORT TERM...Johnson/MPS LONG TERM...Johnson/MPS AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS MARINE...Johnson/MPS