631
FXUS61 KPHI 110548
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
148 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to ridge across the area into the middle
of the week. Meanwhile, an upper trough swings across the
northern Middle Atlantic region. At the end of the week, a cold
front crosses the region. Fair weather follows the front and
remains into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak wave of low pressure bringing a band of showers and
embedded thunder across the Delmarva and far southern NJ early
this morning should be departing off the coast before dawn.
Further north, partly to mostly cloudy and seasonably cool with
temps in the 50s to low 60s.

For today, most of the area starts out quiet and dry with some
sun. However, with closed low developing just to the north and
plenty of vorticity rotating around, combined with the cold pool
aloft and strong June insolation, and we`ll likely see a lot of
cumulus to stratocumulus by midday. A lot of guidance also hits
on sea-breeze front helping spawn some showers and isolated
thunderstorms by this afternoon, starting out mostly over NJ and
DE but possibly migrating inland toward SE PA. So, have chance
POPs across much of the region for the PM, but further NW, looks
like the Lehigh Valley, Berks and Poconos are more likely to
stay dry. Temps will be rather cool for mid-June, with 70s
common.

Tonight, upper low starts migrating back to the northeast and
heights rise rapidly. This should cause lingering convection to
die quickly before sunset with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies overnight. Lows mostly in the 50s to low 60s. Enjoy it, as
we`re about to flip the page to summer in a big way.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough/low will have moved away and weakened by
midweek. Surface high pressure will remain across the region
with fair weather expected from Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will begin the period near normal, but end up above
normal by Thursday with highs Thu in the mid/upper 80s most
areas with some low 90s around the metro Philadelphia area.
Except for Delmarva, the humidity levels will still not be too
uncomfortable Thu, but the heat/humidity will be increasing over
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hotter temperatures are expected for the end of the week as
upper ridging builds across the Eastern part of the country. The
westerlies and storm track will remain close enough to keep the
extreme heat away from the region, but above normal is one
theme for Friday and into the weekend. Friday will feature the
warmest readings with widespread 90 to 95 degree temperatures
for the area. It will also arrive with higher humidity levels
too with dew points in the 60s for most spots. Relief from the
heat and humidity will be found near the shore with highs there
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Along with the summer-like warmth Friday comes the only
noticeable chance for showers/tstms during the long term. A cold
front drops through the area creating lift needed to produce
the rains. Pops are in the slight chance/chance range for now
with the higher percentages for the N/W areas. Severe weather
may be possible with some CAPE/shear present (mostly NW areas).

Following the frontal passage Fri night, drier and slightly
cooler air arrives from the Great Lakes region. While high
temperatures will still be above normal Sat/Sun, humidity levels
will be more comfortable. No rains is expected this weekend and
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm
approaching KACY/KMIV but impacts unlikely. Winds north to
northwest 5 kts or less. High confidence.

Today...VFR overall. Scattered, mainly afternoon showers may
impact all terminals except KRDG/KABE, with an isolated t-storm
possible as well, most likely at KMIV. A heavier storm could
briefly reduce vsby to MVFR or even IFR, but it should be very
transient should it occur. Winds north to northeast, becoming
southeast for KMIV/KACY in the afternoon and NW for remaining
terminals, generally 5 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming NW 5 kts or less. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Wed/Thu... VFR much of the time. Haze possible Thu.

Friday... Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible in showers/tstms.

Saturday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines thru tonight. Winds generally below 10 kts.
Seas 1-2 ft. An isolated thunderstorm possible, mainly this
afternoon.

Outlook... Generally sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday
night into early Friday with fair weather. Later Friday, SCA
gusts and near 5ft seas are possible with scattered
showers/tstms. Fair weather Sat/Sun.

Rip Currents...

Low risk of rip currents in place for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will be onshore tomorrow, but with winds weak, and a short
to medium period swell combined with 1 to 2 foot breakers,
there is a low risk for rip currents. Similar conditions on
Wednesday, though winds go more shore parallel, still less than
10 MPH.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara/RCM