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FXUS61 KPHI 100047
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
847 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough to the west across the Great Lakes approaches the
region tonight through Monday night. Surface high pressure slowly
builds early this week. The high crests over the region during the
midweek with significant warming following it. A front may approach
towards week`s end before high pressure returns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A surface cold front has moved offshore while another lingers
across NY state. A jet stream across the Middle Atlantic continues
to bring high clouds over the region at times. Showers to the north/west
continue to dry as they approach the southern Poconos and north
NJ. We have left a small chance of a showers for a few hours in
case a stray showers makes it into the CWA. Other than that, a
fair weather fcst with decreasing clouds and slackening winds.
Lows tonight in the 50s with low 60s for the metro areas.

As the trailing upper level short wave trough pivots across the
region tomorrow, the low level moisture should be very limited.
Therefore, expect a dry day for almost all of the region. Mild
temperatures and gusty winds (20 mph) are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will be just to the west during the day on
Monday and will slowly slide eastward across the region through
Tuesday evening. Various vort maxima rotating around the trough
and across our region could provoke a shower here and there,
with the best bet appearing to be down in the Delmarva Monday
evening as a more portent max crosses (PoPs 15-25%). Overall,
though dry conditions will prevail through the short term.

Lows Monday night look to be in the 50s across most of the
region with upper 40s in the Poconos and near 60 in the heart of
the urban corridor and at the immediate coast. Heading into
daytime Tuesday, the cool air aloft will promote afternoon
cloud development, so expecting some morning sun followed by a
grayer afternoon. Temperatures will still be on the cooler side
with few likely managing to hit 80 degrees. Cloud coverage will
decrease in the evening and into the overnight with the loss of
daytime heating and the upper-level trough axis finally pushing
offshore. Another night of the temperatures in the 50s to low
60s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridge building in from the southwest will be the
main factor through at least midday Friday as we enter a rapid
warming trend. Highs rise around 5 degrees each day, with low-
mid 80s Wednesday, upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, and low 90s
Friday. Guidance has backed off slightly with temperatures on
Friday but we will be watching this one a little closely as if a
warming trend in the guidance resumes, this could be our first
heat advisory event of the summer. Night- time temps will also
feature a notable uptick, with low- mid 60s Wednesday night and
upper 60s to near 70 Thursday night.

The heat doesn`t appear to last long, however, as a cold front
is still progged to cross the region at week`s end. Right now
timing favors an early morning Saturday passage, which would
limit the significant weather risk, but still have some thunder
risk and shower chances in the forecast. Either way, the front
looks pretty fast right now, and by late Saturday surface high
pressure takes back control over the region and looks to keep it
into the new week as an upper-level ridge builds in. A return
to the 80s with sunshine and lowered humidity looks to be on
deck for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...VFR with decreasing clouds. Northwesterly
winds around 10 kt. High confidence.

Monday...VFR expected. Northwesterly winds around 10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...
Monday night through Friday...VFR. There is a chance of showers
Monday night, most likely south of KMIV/KACY though. Otherwise,
no significant weather through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
conditions through Monday.

Outlook...

Monday night through Wednesday...Conditions expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will gust to 15 kts or
less with wave heights no higher than 3 feet. An isolated shower
is possible Monday and Tuesday, no significant weather
Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible
as winds and seas approach 20-25 knots and 4-5 feet
respectively. No significant weather through daytime Friday.

Rip Currents...

For Monday, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights
of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast
afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights
of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Johnson/po
SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM
LONG TERM...AKL/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/Johnson/Staarmann/po
MARINE...AKL/Johnson