569
FXUS61 KPHI 102307
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
707 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to ridge across the area into the middle
of the week. Meanwhile, an upper trough swings across the
northern Middle Atlantic region. Later this week, a cold front
crosses the region. Fair weather follows the front and remains
into the weekend and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast on track this evening. Only minor tweaks made to the
grids. Some showers are tracking towards the Eastern Shore this
evening.

The majority of the area lies underneath the broad upper trough over
the Northeast as surface high pressure builds across the Great
Lakes.The base of the trough axis will begin to approach the
area from the west tonight while being accompanied by some weak
energy passing through the region. This is depicted and
supported by most hi-res guidance where a few isolated to
scattered showers are expected to develop to the south and east
of Philadelphia. A few rumbles of thunder are possible as there
will be a bit of elevated instability around, however this will
be extremely limited in nature. Otherwise, to the north and west
of Philadelphia and outside of any showers, skies will become
mostly cloudy. Low temps are expected to be in the 50s to low
60s for most, with upper 40s in the Poconos.

For Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies early should give way to some
clearing by late morning. However, another round of increasing clouds
is expected during the afternoon as the upper level low will be located
due north of the region and the base of the trough axis passes by
late in the day. Guidance has been persistent showing that a few
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late
morning and early afternoon. The greatest likelihood of occurrence
will be near the coast where convergence of winds along the seabreeze
will be greatest across the Delmarva and New Jersey. For locations
in E Pennsylvania, skies will likely just remain mostly cloudy
during the afternoon. High temps are expected to be in the 70s for
most with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough/low will have moved away and weakened by midweek.
Surface high pressure will remain across the region with fair weather
expected from Tuesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will begin
the period near normal, but end up above normal by Thursday with
highs Thu in the mid/upper 80s most areas with some low 90s around
the metro Philadelphia area. Except for Delmarva, the humidity levels
will still not be too uncomfortable Thu, but the heat/humidity will
be increasing over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Hotter temperatures are expected for the end of the week as upper
ridging builds across the Eastern part of the country. The westerlies
and storm track will remain close enough to keep the extreme heat
away from the region, but above normal is one theme for Friday and
into the weekend. Friday will feature the warmest readings with widespread
90 to 95 degree temperatures for the area. It will also arrive with
higher humidity levels too with dew points in the 60s for most spots.
Relief from the heat and humidity will be found near the shore with
highs there in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Along with the summer-like warmth Friday comes the only noticeable
chance for showers/tstms during the long term. A cold front
drops through the area creating lift needed to produce the rains.
Pops are in the slight chance/chance range for now with the higher
percentages for the N/W areas. Severe weather may be possible with
some CAPE/shear present (mostly NW areas).

Following the frontal passage Fri night, drier and slightly cooler
air arrives from the Great Lakes region. While high temperatures
will still be above normal Sat/Sun, humidity levels will be more
comfortable. No rains is expected this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.


Tonight...VFR. Some showers move through Delmarva and South
Jersey, with VCSH included for KACY/KMIV. Winds gradually
veering, and going more northerly/just east of north tonight, 5
kt or less. High confidence.

Tuesday...VFR expected. Winds generally out of the northwest
around 5 kt, with the exception being KMIV/KACY, where the sea-
breeze will result in east/southeast winds. Some isolated
showers/thunderstorms possible (25-40%) in the vicinity of the
sea-breeze. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wed/Thu... VFR much of the time. Haze possible Thu.

Friday... Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible in showers/tstms.

Saturday... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. West-southwest
winds around 10-15 kt for the remainder of today will diminish and
become north-northeast winds around 5-10 kt overnight. East to
northeast winds around 8-13 kt expected on Tuesday. Seas of 1-3
feet. Fair weather expected outside of a few isolated showers or
thunderstorms possible late tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...
Generally sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday night into early
Friday with fair weather. Later Friday, SCA gusts and near 5ft
seas are possible with scattered showers/tstms. Fair weather
Sat/Sun.

Rip Currents...

Low risk of rip currents in place for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds will be onshore tomorrow, but with winds weak, and a short
to medium period swell combined with 1 to 2 foot breakers, there
is a low risk for rip currents. Similar conditions on Wednesday,
though winds go more shore parallel, still less than 10 MPH.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara
MARINE...DeSilva/Hoeflich/OHara