Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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914 FXUS61 KPHI 101927 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to ridge across the area into the middle of the week. Meanwhile, an upper trough swings across the northern Middle Atlantic region. Later this week, a cold front crosses the region. Fair weather follows the front and remains into the weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The majority of the area lies underneath the broad upper trough over the Northeast as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. As a result, scattered fair weather clouds have developed over much of the region today with temps mostly in the 70s to around 80 degrees. The base of the trough axis will begin to approach the area from the west tonight while being accompanied by some weak energy passing through the region. This is depicted and supported by most hi-res guidance where a few isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop to the south and east of Philadelphia. A few rumbles of thunder are possible as there will be a bit of elevated instability around, however this will be extremely limited in nature. Otherwise, to the north and west of Philadelphia and outside of any showers, skies will become mostly cloudy. Low temps are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s for most, with upper 40s in the Poconos. For Tuesday, mostly cloudy skies early should give way to some clearing by late morning. However, another round of increasing clouds is expected during the afternoon as the upper level low will be located due north of the region and the base of the trough axis passes by late in the day. Guidance has been persistent showing that a few isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop by late morning and early afternoon. The greatest likelihood of occurrence will be near the coast where convergence of winds along the seabreeze will be greatest across the Delmarva and New Jersey. For locations in E Pennsylvania, skies will likely just remain mostly cloudy during the afternoon. High temps are expected to be in the 70s for most with light winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper trough/low will have moved away and weakened by midweek. Surface high pressure will remain across the region with fair weather expected from Tuesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will begin the period near normal, but end up above normal by Thursday with highs Thu in the mid/upper 80s most areas with some low 90s around the metro Philadelphia area. Except for Delmarva, the humidity levels will still not be too uncomfortable Thu, but the heat/humidity will be increasing over the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Hotter temperatures are expected for the end of the week as upper ridging builds across the Eastern part of the country. The westerlies and storm track will remain close enough to keep the extreme heat away from the region, but above normal is one theme for Friday and into the weekend. Friday will feature the warmest readings with widespread 90 to 95 degree temperatures for the area. It will also arrive with higher humidity levels too with dew points in the 60s for most spots. Relief from the heat and humidity will be found near the shore with highs there in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Along with the summer-like warmth Friday comes the only noticeable chance for showers/tstms during the long term. A cold front drops through the area creating lift needed to produce the rains. Pops are in the slight chance/chance range for now with the higher percentages for the N/W areas. Severe weather may be possible with some CAPE/shear present (mostly NW areas). Following the frontal passage Fri night, drier and slightly cooler air arrives from the Great Lakes region. While high temperatures will still be above normal Sat/Sun, humidity levels will be more comfortable. No rains is expected this weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR with SCT/BKN clouds. W-NW winds near 10-15 kt with gusts near 18-20 kt possible at times. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with BKN CIGs by 04-06Z at all terminals. NW winds early will become N to NNE winds by early Tuesday morning between 3- 8 kt. A few isolated showers may impact KMIV/KACY/KILG overnight so have continued to mention VCSH for these terminals. Elsewhere, no significant weather is expected. Moderate confidence overall. Tuesday...VFR expected. Skies may scatter out in the morning, but anticipate another round of BKN CIGs during the afternoon. Winds will vary depending on the terminal with KMIV/KACY likely remaining E winds due to weak onshore flow. All other terminals should become NW winds by the afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wed/Thu... VFR much of the time. Haze possible Thu. Friday... Lower CIGS/VSBYS possible in showers/tstms. Saturday... VFR expected. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect through Tuesday. West-southwest winds around 10-15 kt for the remainder of today will diminish and become north-northeast winds around 5-10 kt overnight. East to northeast winds around 8-13 kt expected on Tuesday. Seas of 1-3 feet. Fair weather expected outside of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible late tonight into Tuesday. Outlook... Generally sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday night into early Friday with fair weather. Later Friday, SCA gusts and near 5ft seas are possible with scattered showers/tstms. Fair weather Sat/Sun. Rip Currents... Rest of today, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara NEAR TERM...DeSilva SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...DeSilva/OHara MARINE...DeSilva/OHara