614
FXUS61 KPHI 101100
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
700 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will linger nearby for the next few days,
keeping temps tolerable, but resulting in elevated cloud cover
and a few spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. An
upper level ridge builds in later in the week, with warming
temperatures and mostly clear skies. The next front may arrive
Friday night into Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms and a
bit of cooling in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Seasonable a pleasant weather conditions continue to prevail
through tonight across the region.

Broad troughing will remain in place across the eastern CONUS
through tonight. High pressure will continue building across the
Great Lakes region into tonight. The result will be a dry day
with scattered clouds. With yesterday`s cold front now offshore,
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, ranging
largely from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A west-northwest
pressure gradient will also remain in place, albeit weaker than
previous days. Expect west-northwest winds near 10-20 mph once
again today, although it won`t be as breezy/gusty as it was over
the weekend.

As the trough axis shifts offshore this evening and overnight,
CAMs continue to support some weak instability will be
sufficient to initiate a few showers and perhaps some embedded
thunder across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. This
activity should be isolated to scattered in nature at most, but
will also result in increasing clouds overnight across a good
chunk of the area, especially near and south of Philly. The
showers should be dissipating or offshore by daybreak Tuesday.
Expect temperatures falling into the 50s to near 60 degrees
tonight with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low will develop over the area on Tuesday, and this
throws a small wrench in our forecast. Guidance has trended
notably upward in shower coverage for Tuesday, aided by forcing
and upper-level cold pool-induced instability by the upper low
expected to be nearby. Thus, have trended temps down, cloud
cover and pops up, with best coverage likely in the afternoon
across Philly and points south. That all having been said, not
expecting a wash-out by any means... just that the chance of a
shower has certainly increased notably compared to how it looked
24 hours ago. Temps mostly in the 70s for highs.

Loss of heating should allow any showers to dwindle quickly
Tuesday evening, with clouds mostly scattering out. This will
allow temps to drop into the 50s to low 60s for most of the
region.

Upper low pulls to the northeast for Wednesday but a trailing
shortwave will cross the region. Think this mostly ends up being
a dry day, but the lingering upper cold pool and trough forcing
likely elevated cloud cover a bit above mostly sunny, at least
by midday and during the afternoon. Otherwise, still think a
notable warming trend will be underway, with highs returning to
the 80s for most.

Turning out clear to partly cloudy Wednesday night as ridging
builds more strongly over the region. With the ongoing warm
advection, lows should remain mostly in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Building upper ridge and surface high dominates Thursday, with
dry conditions and mostly sunny skies with temps flirting with
90 across the region. The warm advection and somewhat increased
dew points will help hold lows on Thursday night closer to 70 in
the warm spots and 60s elsewhere.

Front at week`s end has sped up a bit in latest guidance, so
have adjusted pops forward in time a bit, but still slight
chance from Philly south and west, with chance north and east.
Bulk of Friday still looks dry and hot, though guidance may be
starting to trend back downward with temps a little. Still have
low-mid 90s for most, but this is on the edge of heat advisory.
Confidence is low on meeting criteria at this time.

A little cooler and clearing for the weekend as high pressure
builds in behind the front. Temps mostly in the 80s with mostly
sunny skies and little to no chance of rain. Night-time lows
back into the 60s, 50s cooler spots like the Poconos.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with scattered clouds. WNW winds near 10-15 kts
with gusts near 18-20 kts possible at times. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds. Northwest winds near 5-10
kts shifting more northerly, or perhaps northeasterly
overnight. Some showers are anticipated to develop across
Delmarva and southern New Jersey by around 03Z, ending by around
09Z. These may impact MIV/ACY/ILG during this timeframe. Have
included VCSH for MIV/ACY, where chances of showers are
greatest. Some thunder is possible, but this potential is low
(<20%). High confidence in prevailing conditions.

Outlook...

VFR conditions are likely Tuesday through Friday. However, there
is the slight chance of TSRA Tuesday and again Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Westerly winds
near 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible at times this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the north or northeast later
tonight. Seas 1-3 feet. Aside from a possible isolated shower
overnight, fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Wednesday night...conditions should remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria with wind gusts of 15 kts or less
and seas of 1 to 3 feet. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is
possible, with the best chance being Tuesday.

For Thursday and Friday, increasing southerly flow ahead of an
approaching cold front may bring conditions near or past low-end
Small Craft Advisory levels, with gusts up to 25 kts and waves
up to 5 ft. The worst conditions appear likely to be on Friday.
A shower or thunderstorm is also possible by late Friday.

Rip Currents...

For today, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights
of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast
afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights of
1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Staarmann
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann