211
FXUS61 KPHI 091720
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
120 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front may bring a few showers today. Cooler conditions
prevail with a slight shower potential Monday and Tuesday as an
upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday and
Thursday with significant warming. Another front may approach
towards week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front has moved through the Delaware Valley, and continues
to make steady progress eastward. Expect the front to be off the
coast by mid to late afternoon. Earlier showers have mostly
moved out of the region. However, a trailing mid and upper level
trough may result in isolated showers in the southern Poconos
this evening.

The northwesterly flow will be persistent through tomorrow, but
with the pressure gradient decreasing as we go through the
evening, expect wind speeds to also decrease for tonight and
tomorrow. Another trailing upper level short wave trough will
pivot towards our region tomorrow, but by that point, moisture
should be very limited. Therefore, expect a dry day for almost
all of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough axis will be just to the west Monday morning and
will slowly slide eastward across the region through Tuesday
evening. Various vort maxima rotating around the trough and
across our region could provoke a shower here and there, with
the best bet appearing to be down in the Delmarva Monday evening
as a more portent max crosses, but overall, dry conditions will
prevail through the short term. The cool air aloft will promote
afternoon cloud development, so both days may start with some
morning sun followed by a grayer afternoon. Yesterday guidance
suggested Tuesday was going to be slightly cooler than Monday,
but today those have flipped. That said, both days now look
like few will manage 80 degrees either afternoon, with both
nights featuring pleasant temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level ridge building in from the southwest will be the
main factor through at least midday Friday as enter a rapid
warming trend. Highs rise around 5 degrees each day, with low-
mid 80s Wednesday, upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, and low-mid
90s Friday. Friday is notably higher than the last round of
guidance so will be watching this one a little closely to see if
this trend holds, but this could be our first heat advisory
event of the summer. Night-time temps will also feature a
notable uptick, with low-mid 60s Wednesday night and upper 60s
to near 70 Thursday night.

The heat doesn`t appear to last long, however, as a cold front
is still progged to cross the region at week`s end. Right now
timing favors an early morning Saturday passage, which would
limit the significant weather risk, but still have some thunder
risk and shower chances in the forecast. Either way, the front
looks pretty fast right now, and by late Saturday we are back in
the 80s with a return of sunshine and lowered humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through Tonight...VFR with decreasing clouds especially after
00Z. Northwesterly winds gusting near 20 kt, decreasing to near
10 kt near or after 00Z. High confidence.

Tomorrow...VFR expected. Northwesterly winds around 10 kt. High
confidence.

Outlook...
VFR Monday through Thursday with just the very slight chance of
a shower Monday and Tuesday - no significant weather on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Southwest
winds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times.
Winds will shift to the northwest into the afternoon with some
occasional gusts near 25 kts possible, especially near the
coast. Winds remain from the west near 10-15 kts tonight. Seas
2-4 feet. Aside from a possible isolated shower this afternoon,
fair weather is expected.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday night...Conditions should remain below
Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will gust to 15 kts or less
with wave heights no higher than 3 feet. An isolated shower is
possible Monday and Tuesday, no significant weather on
Wednesday. By Thursday, winds and seas may approach SCA levels
with gusts to 20 kts, locally higher, and waves u to 4 feet,
also locally higher. Otherwise, no significant weather Thursday.

Rip Currents...

For today, southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph combined with waves
of 2-3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk of rip currents along
the Ocean and Atlantic county beaches in New Jersey. Lower wave
heights of 1-2 feet elsewhere will allow for a LOW risk of rip
currents for the remainder of the New Jersey shore and the
Delaware beaches.

For Monday, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights
of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a
LOW risk of rip currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Johnson
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Johnson/RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...RCM/Staarmann