494
FXUS61 KPHI 080536
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
136 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in to our south tonight through Saturday.
A sequence of cold fronts cross through the area on Sunday and again
on Monday. Broad high pressure returns for Tuesday and should
generally dominate through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Lows overnight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will
remain from the west near 5-10 mph through dawn. Brief high
pressure builds in through Saturday keeping sensible weather dry
to start the weekend. With cold air advection through the
evening 925mb temps should be able 2 degrees cooler Saturday
than Friday leading to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under
partly cloudy skies. Winds continue to be mainly out of the
west- northwest but look to be slightly weaker with gusts up
around 20 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As a whole, Saturday night looks to remain dry other than a slight
chance of a rain shower in the Poconos. Increasing clouds are
expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. PoPs will then
increase from northwest to southeast during the day on Sunday as a
frontal system moves through. There won`t be a lot of moisture to
work with (POPs only 20 to 30 percent) but the winds 5 to 10 k ft
off the deck will be fairly strong so it will be a gusty day and any
showers could bring some higher wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range. Best chances for showers will be near and north/west of the
urban corridor where better forcing should be present. By Sunday
night, skies will begin to clear and should remain at least partly
cloudy on Monday. At this point, Monday appears to remain mainly dry
as drier air looks to be in place with the secondary frontal
passage. Highs for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s to low
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level trough eventually pulls away from the area on Monday
night and Tuesday. While there is still some uncertainty in the
forecast beyond this point, the midweek period looks to overall
feature mainly dry weather with a general warming trend over the
Tuesday through Thursday period as the flow aloft should generally
become more zonal. Indications are by Friday it will become hot and
more humid as SW flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs by this time could be reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s.
This cold front could eventually bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms either by late Friday or early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12Z...VFR with light westerly winds 5-10 kts. High
confidence.

Saturday...VFR. West to northwest winds increasing again to
10-15 knots with gusts near 20 knots at times. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR expected. Slight chance for
sub- VFR conditions possible on Sunday with a shower. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 knots at
times. Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds will occasionally gust around 15-20 kt through the period with
seas around 2-3 feet. Fair weather expected through Monday with a
slight chance of showers returning on Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

On Saturday, the effects of the New Moon will not be as
impactful and west winds will be lighter. The swell will still
be onshore, so there will be a Moderate Risk for Atlantic
County where the rip current risk is higher at low tide from
roughly Longport to Brigantine during the afternoon. Elsewhere,
with breaking waves generally expected to be 1-2 feet there will
be a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For Sunday, there is LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life
threatening rip currents at New Jersey and Delaware beaches.
Breaking waves are expected to be 1-2 feet with southwest winds
of 10 to 15 mph. A medium period swell is anticipated; we will
be few days past the New Moon.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A New Moon occurred Thursday; latest guidance continues to
indicate most locations will see some spotty minor coastal
flooding with tonight`s high tide. Guidance does have a few
sites touching advisory minor, but with prevailing westerly
flow, guidance may be running a bit hot.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...AKL/MPS/Staarmann/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Staarmann/Wunderlin
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO PHI