Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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974 FXUS61 KPHI 281825 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 225 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday. Cold front looks to move through later Wednesday into Wednesday night before moving offshore. Surface high pressure to build in thereafter, holding influence over the region Thursday into Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return late weekend into the beginning of next week thanks to the next low pressure system and associated fronts. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A few isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this afternoon across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley as a weak secondary frontal boundary moves through the region. Severe threat will be minimal with very limited instability in place despite modest deep layer shear. While temperatures will not be much cooler behind the front, a much drier air mass will overspread the region with surface dew points falling into the 50s. Winds will remain elevated through sunset tonight with gusts around 25 mph. Any showers and thunderstorms will end fairly quickly after sunset with loss of diurnal heating, giving way to a tranquil night. Lows tonight will be in the 50s to right around 60. Dry to start Wednesday morning before the axis of a broad upper level trough shifts overhead in the afternoon, bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Clearer skies earlier in the day will allow to strong daytime heating, but thanks to the fronts passing through the region on Tuesday, low-level moisture will be on the lower side (surface dewpoints in the mid 50s at best). In combination with high temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, only modest surface based CAPE will result (500-750 J/kg). Model soundings indicate that shear will also be on the lower side (30-35 kts) and unidirectional. Putting all the pieces together, a few stronger thunderstorms will be possible but severe potential remains overall low. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Cold front will continue to cross through the region during the first half of Wednesday night before moving offshore. Thereafter, surface high pressure will look to build in from the northwest with time. Though some shortwave energy may keep things slightly unsettled Thursday, surface high pressure will dominate the region through the rest of the short term. Not too much to write home about with this forecast. WPC does not have our region outlooked for any excessive rainfall; SPC does not have our region outlooked for any severe weather. Chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday night thanks to the cold front and upper-level short wave continuing to pass through; PoPs diminishing with time. Slight chance of a few stray/isolated showers Thursday thanks to some lingering shortwave energy. Otherwise, with surface high pressure building in, expect high pressure to dominate Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday. Mostly clear skies can be anticipated Thursday onwards. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensembles and deterministic models support surface high pressure holding influence over the region Friday night into Sunday as it moves generally eastward with time. With surface high pressure possibly well offshore by later Sunday into Monday, next surface low pressure system and associated fronts should be invited to impact the region. Things look to become unsettled during the time frame of later Sunday into the beginning of next week. Overall, expect mainly quiet conditions Friday night through Saturday night with things beginning to become unsettled again later Sunday into the beginning of the week. No PoP included in today`s forecast through Saturday night. PoPs approach from the west Sunday; slight chance or chance PoPs Sunday afternoon onwards. Around average temperatures expected through the term. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Rest of today (through 00Z)...VFR. Cannot rule out a passing SHRA or TSRA at KRDG/KABE late this afternoon. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts this afternoon. High confidence overall, though confidence is too low to warrant mentioning SHRA/TSRA at KRDG/KABE TAF. Tonight...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Wednesday...Prevailing VFR conditions to start. Sub-VFR conditions possible in the afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms arriving west to east. Light winds out of the west except for in and around thunderstorms. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday night...Sub-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms. Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance for isolated/stray showers, mainly in the afternoon. Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR. Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday. SW winds 10-15kts gusting to 20 kts late afternoon and early evening diminish to a light west flow around 5-10 kts overnight. Winds turn SSW around 10 kts again during the day Wednesday with gust up to 15 kts. Seas 2-4 feet Tuesday night become 2-3 feet Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday night. Rip Currents... SW winds this morning will become W and increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Although the flow will be offshore, gusty winds will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ beaches and a LOW risk at DE beaches. Winds will be much lighter on Wednesday. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ and DE beaches. As always, rip currents can still develop, and often occur in the vicinities of jetties and piers. Utilize any guarded beaches this holiday weekend if venturing out into the water. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin NEAR TERM...MJL SHORT TERM...Wunderlin LONG TERM...Wunderlin AVIATION...MJL/Wunderlin MARINE...MJL/Wunderlin