706
FXUS61 KPHI 301653
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1253 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today and holds dominant influence over
the region into Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return by
late Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will influence our region through the
duration of the near term. Pressures will continue to rise as surface
high pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes region
continues to move eastwards/southeastwards with time. Overall,
we are looking at a dry forecast with pleasant and tranquil
conditions.

Today...There is some shortwave energy hanging about over/near the
region. Guidance has mostly dropped the few isolated pop-up showers
for later this afternoon over our northeastern and eastern NJ
counties and areas near the NJ coast. Still, a quick and stray
pop-up shower over these areas should not be ruled out
completely given the lingering shortwave energy. Otherwise, it
will be a pleasant day with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s
and dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Diurnal Cu/Sc is expected to
continue developing; skies in some areas may become partly
cloudy due to this.

Tonight...Mostly clear skies with light NNW winds. Winds may go
light and variable in a few locations but region wide calm
winds are not anticipated. Still, radiational cooling will
likely take hold given the setup. Lows will mostly be in the mid
to upper 40s with low 50s around the metro areas. Low to mid
50s are anticipated close to the shore.

Friday...A beautiful day with surface high pressure in control.
Plenty of sunshine with highs mainly in the mid 70s and dewpoints in
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate over the area Friday through Saturday as
it gradually moves eastward from the midwestern states towards and
then off the east coast.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice
and quiet short term with pleasant conditions. Both Friday and
Saturday will be beautiful sunny and dry days. We are looking at
highs in the 70s Friday with dewpoints in the 40s. For Saturday, we
are looking at highs near 80F with dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Both
days will feel very comfortable; being outdoors will be enjoyable.

Mainly clear skies will be present Friday night with light winds in
the forecast. This will lead to good radiational cooling with lows
mostly in the low to mid 50s except upper 40s over the southern
Poconos. By Saturday night, the high pressure center will be
offshore leading to winds turning more southerly with some
increasing mid and high clouds. This will keep it a little warmer
than Friday night with lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long range forecast remains a bit tricky and uncertain as the
upper level flow pattern becomes more complex. Sunday into Monday
there will be the next approaching upper level trough from the west
as it move eastward across Canada while at the same time a closed
low may stall south of the Canadian Maritimes. The approaching upper
trough will be trying to bring more shortwave energy and
unsettled weather to the area but it`s possible much of this
gets held at bay if the closed low over the western Atlantic
sets up more of a blocking pattern over the east coast. If this
occurs it could keep us mainly under the influence of an upper
level ridge sandwiched between these two systems. The upshot of
all this is that we do maintain some slight chances for
afternoon / evening showers and thunderstorms over the area for
Sunday and Monday with chances increasing some as we head into
Tuesday and Wednesday. So it`s not looking like a washout during
this period but there will be the potential for some bouts of
unsettled weather from showers and storms, again, mainly during
the afternoon and evening time periods. Temperatures during this
period will be seasonably warm with highs mostly in the low to
mid 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. NNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts.
High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. NNW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Friday...VFR/SKC. NNW/NW winds 5-10 kts with gusts near 20 kts. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday night...VFR. High confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by
the afternoon do to showers/storms. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Friday. Fair weather through
Friday with surface high pressure building in. Winds mainly NNW
10-15 kts. Seas 2-3 feet.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...OHara/Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin