261
FXUS61 KPHI 311619
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure holds dominant influence over the region into Sunday,
then some unsettled conditions could return later Sunday and
continue into Monday. High pressure may then build back in
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure will dominate over the region through the
duration of the near term. This surface high is currently centered
just to our west and will gradually move eastward with time.
Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is on tap; pleasant and tranquil
conditions will continue.

We will continue to see plenty of sunshine for the rest of today
with mainly clear skies, though some diurnal Cu will continue to
develop. Highs will mainly be in the mid 70s across the region with
dewpoints remaining in the low 40s; very comfortable indeed!

Clear skies are expected tonight with very light WNW/NW synoptic
flow. Winds will likely go light and variable and/or calm for most
locations; efficient radiational cooling will take hold. Most
locations will see lows in the low 50s with the metro areas and
coastal locations seeing the mid to upper 50s. Areas that radiate
very well (e.g., the Pine Barrens in NJ) could see lows drop
into the upper 40s.

Another beautiful day is on tap for Saturday with high pressure in
control. Highs are expected to be warmer than those seen Friday;
mainly the upper 70s to low 80s can be anticipated. Dewpoints of the
mid 40s to low 50s can be anticipated, RHs will again be very
comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The center of high pressure shifts south and east off the coast
Saturday night through Sunday as a weak disturbance approaches
from the west. This will bring increasing high cloudiness
Saturday night with clouds thickening up through Sunday. By late
day Sunday there could be some showers moving into portions of
eastern PA and Delmarva eventually getting into NJ. However the
timing on this is uncertain so POPs are generally around 30
percent or so. The clouds will keep it a bit cooler compared to
Saturday but dew points will increase some so it will feel a
little bit more humid. Generally expect highs ranging from the
mid 70s to low 80s.

Chances for showers continue Sunday night as the deamplifying upper
level disturbance moves through but overall this does not look to be
a very impactful weather maker. Some embedded thunder will be
possible over Delmarva but otherwise instability looks to be pretty
limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long range forecast continues to be a bit tricky as it`s looking
like the area will be situated between a stalled upper level low
over the western Atlantic near the Canadian Maritimes and an
approaching upper level trough from the west. This approaching upper
level trough may take some time to reach the east coast, however,
due to a blocking pattern that develops due to the stalled upper
low. This could keep the area largely under the influence of
upper level ridging through the first half of next week. That
said, there will still be the potential for some pieces of upper
level energy from the trough to sneak under the ridge helping
trigger some showers and thunderstorms each day Monday through
Wednesday. Not expecting a washout though for any of these days
and generally speaking, POPs are only around 20 to 30 percent
during this time frame. Expect highs generally in the low to mid
80s with dew points generally 60 to 65 which will make it feel
a little bit humid but still not too bad.

Chances for showers and storms look to increase by the time we get
to next Thursday and the main upper level trough finally starts to
dig in over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. NNW/NW winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. Light WNW/NW flow 5 kts or less to start,
followed by light and variable and/or calm winds for most sites.
High confidence.

Saturday...VFR. WNW/NW winds 5-10 kts backing W/WSW in the
afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger.

Tuesday...Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by the afternoon
due to some showers/storms, especially for eastern PA TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Saturday. Fair weather
expected through Saturday. Variable winds around 10 kts. Seas 2
feet or less.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...No marine headlines anticipated.

Rip Currents...

For Friday, northwest winds 5 to 15 mph in the morning will
veer and become southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet. With fairly light winds and
shorter period swells, there will continue to be a LOW risk for
the development of dangerous rip currents along the New Jersey
and Delaware beaches.

Saturday will be very similar to Friday. Northwest winds around
10 mph will become southeast later in the day. Breaking waves
will be 1 to 2 feet. This will once again result in a LOW risk
for the development of dangerous rip currents along the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and
piers. Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the
water.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Wunderlin
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin