Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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131 FXUS61 KPHI 101712 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 112 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will linger nearby for the next few days, keeping temps tolerable, but resulting in elevated cloud cover and a few spotty showers or even an isolated thunderstorm. An upper level ridge builds in later in the week, with warming temperatures and mostly clear skies. The next front may arrive Friday night into Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms and a bit of cooling in its wake. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1:00pm...Forecast remains on track early this afternoon. Minimal changes were made with respect to the grids. Previous discussion...Broad troughing will remain in place across the eastern CONUS through tonight. High pressure will continue building across the Great Lakes region into tonight. The result will be a dry day with scattered clouds. With yesterday`s cold front now offshore, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today, ranging largely from the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. A west-northwest pressure gradient will also remain in place, albeit weaker than previous days. Expect west- northwest winds near 10-20 mph once again today, although it won`t be as breezy/gusty as it was over the weekend. As the trough axis shifts offshore this evening and overnight, CAMs continue to support some weak instability will be sufficient to initiate a few showers and perhaps some embedded thunder across Delmarva and far southern New Jersey. This activity should be isolated to scattered in nature at most, but will also result in increasing clouds overnight across a good chunk of the area, especially near and south of Philly. The showers should be dissipating or offshore by daybreak Tuesday. Expect temperatures falling into the 50s to near 60 degrees tonight with light winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper level low will develop over the area on Tuesday, and this throws a small wrench in our forecast. Guidance has trended notably upward in shower coverage for Tuesday, aided by forcing and upper-level cold pool-induced instability by the upper low expected to be nearby. Thus, have trended temps down, cloud cover and pops up, with best coverage likely in the afternoon across Philly and points south. That all having been said, not expecting a wash-out by any means... just that the chance of a shower has certainly increased notably compared to how it looked 24 hours ago. Temps mostly in the 70s for highs. Loss of heating should allow any showers to dwindle quickly Tuesday evening, with clouds mostly scattering out. This will allow temps to drop into the 50s to low 60s for most of the region. Upper low pulls to the northeast for Wednesday but a trailing shortwave will cross the region. Think this mostly ends up being a dry day, but the lingering upper cold pool and trough forcing likely elevated cloud cover a bit above mostly sunny, at least by midday and during the afternoon. Otherwise, still think a notable warming trend will be underway, with highs returning to the 80s for most. Turning out clear to partly cloudy Wednesday night as ridging builds more strongly over the region. With the ongoing warm advection, lows should remain mostly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Building upper ridge and surface high dominates Thursday, with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies with temps flirting with 90 across the region. The warm advection and somewhat increased dew points will help hold lows on Thursday night closer to 70 in the warm spots and 60s elsewhere. Front at week`s end has sped up a bit in latest guidance, so have adjusted pops forward in time a bit, but still slight chance from Philly south and west, with chance north and east. Bulk of Friday still looks dry and hot, though guidance may be starting to trend back downward with temps a little. Still have low-mid 90s for most, but this is on the edge of heat advisory. Confidence is low on meeting criteria at this time. A little cooler and clearing for the weekend as high pressure builds in behind the front. Temps mostly in the 80s with mostly sunny skies and little to no chance of rain. Night-time lows back into the 60s, 50s cooler spots like the Poconos. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of Today...VFR with SCT/BKN clouds. W-NW winds near 10-15 kt with gusts near 18-20 kt possible at times. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with BKN CIGs by 04-06Z at all terminals. NW winds early will become N to NNE winds by early Tuesday morning between 3-8 kt. A few isolated showers may impact KMIV/KACY/KILG overnight so have continued to mention VCSH for these terminals. Elsewhere, no significant weather is expected. Moderate confidence overall. Tuesday...VFR expected. Skies may scatter out in the morning, but anticipate another round of BKN CIGs during the afternoon. Winds will vary depending on the terminal with KMIV/KACY likely remaining E winds due to seabreeze. All other terminals should become NW winds by the afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible. Moderate confidence. Outlook... VFR conditions are likely Tuesday night through Friday. However, there is the slight chance of TSRA Tuesday and again Friday. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Westerly winds near 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible at times this afternoon. Winds will shift to the north or northeast later tonight. Seas 1-3 feet. Aside from a possible isolated shower overnight, fair weather is expected. Outlook... Tuesday through Wednesday night...conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria with wind gusts of 15 kts or less and seas of 1 to 3 feet. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, with the best chance being Tuesday. For Thursday and Friday, increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front may bring conditions near or past low-end Small Craft Advisory levels, with gusts up to 25 kts and waves up to 5 ft. The worst conditions appear likely to be on Friday. A shower or thunderstorm is also possible by late Friday. Rip Currents... For today, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM/Staarmann MARINE...RCM/Staarmann