Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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286 FXUS61 KPHI 100445 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1245 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper trough to the west across the Great Lakes approaches the region tonight through Monday night. Surface high pressure slowly builds early this week. The high crests over the region during the midweek with significant warming following it. A front may approach towards week`s end before high pressure returns. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A surface cold front has moved offshore while another lingers across NY state. Overall , a fair weather forecast with scattered clouds and light westerly winds. Lows tonight in the 50s with low 60s for the metro areas. As the trailing upper level short wave trough pivots across the region tomorrow, the low level moisture should be very limited. Therefore, expect a dry day for almost all of the region. Mild temperatures and gusty winds (20 mph) are expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Upper trough axis will be just to the west during the day on Monday and will slowly slide eastward across the region through Tuesday evening. Various vort maxima rotating around the trough and across our region could provoke a shower here and there, with the best bet appearing to be down in the Delmarva Monday evening as a more portent max crosses (PoPs 15-25%). Overall, though dry conditions will prevail through the short term. Lows Monday night look to be in the 50s across most of the region with upper 40s in the Poconos and near 60 in the heart of the urban corridor and at the immediate coast. Heading into daytime Tuesday, the cool air aloft will promote afternoon cloud development, so expecting some morning sun followed by a grayer afternoon. Temperatures will still be on the cooler side with few likely managing to hit 80 degrees. Cloud coverage will decrease in the evening and into the overnight with the loss of daytime heating and the upper-level trough axis finally pushing offshore. Another night of the temperatures in the 50s to low 60s is expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level ridge building in from the southwest will be the main factor through at least midday Friday as we enter a rapid warming trend. Highs rise around 5 degrees each day, with low- mid 80s Wednesday, upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, and low 90s Friday. Guidance has backed off slightly with temperatures on Friday but we will be watching this one a little closely as if a warming trend in the guidance resumes, this could be our first heat advisory event of the summer. Night- time temps will also feature a notable uptick, with low- mid 60s Wednesday night and upper 60s to near 70 Thursday night. The heat doesn`t appear to last long, however, as a cold front is still progged to cross the region at week`s end. Right now timing favors an early morning Saturday passage, which would limit the significant weather risk, but still have some thunder risk and shower chances in the forecast. Either way, the front looks pretty fast right now, and by late Saturday surface high pressure takes back control over the region and looks to keep it into the new week as an upper-level ridge builds in. A return to the 80s with sunshine and lowered humidity looks to be on deck for next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through Tonight...VFR with decreasing clouds. Westerly winds around 5-10 kt. High confidence. Monday...VFR expected. west-northwesterly winds around 10-15 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Monday night through Friday...VFR. There is a chance of showers Monday night, most likely south of KMIV/KACY though. Otherwise, no significant weather through Friday. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through Monday. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...Conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds will gust to 15 kts or less with wave heights no higher than 3 feet. An isolated shower is possible Monday and Tuesday, no significant weather Wednesday. Thursday and Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible as winds and seas approach 20-25 knots and 4-5 feet respectively. No significant weather through daytime Friday. Rip Currents... For Monday, west winds around 10 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For Tuesday, north morning winds around 10 mph and southeast afternoon winds at the same speed, combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and short to medium period swells, will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Johnson/Staarmann SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM LONG TERM...AKL/RCM AVIATION...AKL/Johnson/Staarmann MARINE...AKL/Johnson