259
FXUS61 KPHI 081959
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide to the south through tonight. A cold
front may bring a few showers on Sunday. Cooler conditions
prevail with an occasional shower potential Monday and Tuesday
as an upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday
and Thursday. Another front may approach towards week`s end.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Breezy but otherwise dry and pleasant conditions continue this
afternoon as the area remains largely under the influence of
high pressure centered to the south and west. There`s been some
scattered to broken diurnal cumulus that has developed over
portions of eastern PA into northern NJ with mainly sunny skies
farther south. All in all, a very pleasant early June day aside
from the breeziness of the wind.

The winds will die down early this evening as the pressure
gradient weakens and we start to lose the diurnal mixing. By
later tonight an approaching shortwave trough will result in
increasing mid and high level clouds. While the low levels will
remain dry, guidance remains persistent with indications of
some showers approaching from the northwest toward daybreak. Any
showers overnight will likely remain mostly northwest of I-78
and are not expected to amount to much QPF wise. A light south
to southwest wind can be expected overnight with temperatures
falling into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. Lows in
the mid to upper 50s are forecast for northwest of I-78.

For Sunday, a weak area of low pressure will pass just to our
north, sending a cold front southeastward across the region.
Instability is limited and most forcing stays to our north, so
right now just have a chance of showers except in the Poconos
and northernmost corner of NJ where likely POPs are indicated.
Timing also isn`t too great instability wise as the front
appears to pass midday/early afternoon, and the boundary appears
to become less defined as it does so, hurting convective
chances. Clouds will be common, but it shouldn`t be a totally
cloudy day, especially by later in the day after frontal
passage. Highs mostly 80s I-95 south and east, 70s north and
west. Finally, winds will also be a bit gusty at times for
Sunday, especially around midday into the early afternoon as the
front moves through. Generally expect winds from the WSW ahead
of the front shifting to WNW behind the front. Some gusts of 20
to 30 mph or so are likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cooler air pushes southeastward on Sunday night behind the
front, with some clearing, relatively light winds, and some
radiational cooling. Outside of the Delmarva, immediate coast
and urban corridor, 50s should be common.

Upper low and trough axis remaining overhead Monday with passing
weak shortwaves could result in spotty showers. Guidance has
trended drier so cutback PoPs to less than 15 percent for most
of the region. 15-20 percent PoPs remain for the Poconos and
northwest New Jersey where uplift along the terrain may assist
in forcing a few showers. Highs near 80 SE, 70s much of the rest
of the area, but upper 60s in the Poconos. Lows Monday night
look similar to Sunday night with dry conditions expected across
the region.

Similar story for Tuesday as the forecast looks to be mainly dry
across the region as the upper level trough finally looks to
push offshore. A few showers cannot be completely ruled out,
particularly further south into Delaware where the trough will
hang back just a touch longer. PoPs are less than 20 percent
regionwide though. Highs Tuesday will be the coolest of the
period, with just about the whole CWA no higher than the 70s,
with 60s in the Poconos. Lows Tuesday night again diving into
the 50s outside of the immediate urban corridor and coastal
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridge with surface high pressure returns Wednesday and
Thursday, with dry conditions and warming temperatures
enveloping the region. Highs return to the mid 80s for most of
the region for Wednesday, with upper 80s to potentially low 90s
on Thursday...cooler along the shore and in the Poconos. Lows
will return to the 60s for most.

By Friday, the next cold front appears to start bearing down on
us from the northwest. A few showers are possible for the
northwest portion of the region Thursday afternoon. The
potential for showers and thunderstorms increases areawide on
Friday as southwesterly flow increases. With that increasing
flow, Friday looks like the warmest day of the forecast as well,
with temps potentially exceeding 90 for much of the area. The
front looks to pass by Friday night which would result in a dry
and slightly cooler Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...VFR with scattered clouds. West to northwest
winds 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts at times. High
confidence.

Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings after
06Z. Winds becoming generally southwest near 5 kts, increasing
toward 12Z. High confidence.

Sunday...VFR with a scattered to broken cloud deck around 4-5 k
ft. WSW winds around 10 knots shifting to WNW 10 to 15 gusting
20 to 25 knots around midday / early afternoon as a cold front
moves through NW to SE. A few showers could also occur as the
front moves through but confidence not high enough to include in
TAFs. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...VFR conditions expected to
generally prevail. There is a slight chance of showers Monday,
Tuesday, and Thursday during daylight hours.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Sunday. Westerly to
southwest winds near 10-15 kts this afternoon with gusts near
20 kts at times, especially near the coast. Winds shifting
south to southwest tonight and then back to west and eventually
northwest by late Sunday. Seas around 3 feet. Some showers
possible over the waters Sunday afternoon with otherwise fair
weather.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday...Conditions are forecast to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels. Mostly fair weather with just
a slight chance of showers Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

For today, west to west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined
with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot
with a medium period of 7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of
rip currents.

For Sunday, southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave
heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a
medium period of 6-7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip
currents.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/RCM/Staarmann
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM
LONG TERM...AKL/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons