Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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295 FXUS61 KPHI 081042 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide to the south today and tonight. A cold front may bring a few showers on Sunday. Cooler conditions prevail with an occasional shower potential Monday and Tuesday as an upper low lingers nearby. High pressure builds Wednesday and Thursday. Another front may approach towards week`s end. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Not much to talk about weather wise to kick off the weekend. Quasi- zonal flow will persist with little perturbation until a shortwave trough begins approaching toward daybreak Sunday morning. At the surface, high pressure will be located well to our southwest. A westerly pressure gradient residing across the region today, which will shift more southerly into tonight as a weak cold front approaches by Sunday morning. Some scattered diurnal cumulus will develop into this afternoon. Overall though, a mostly sunny day is expected. Light west to northwesterly winds this morning will increase and become noticeably breezy near 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph by around noon or so. The pressure gradient will weaken later today, so the winds should drop off pretty quickly toward sunset, unlike Friday. Forecast high temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, including along the immediate coast thanks to the modest offshore breeze. Dewpoints will remain quite comfortable near 50 degrees. All in all, a very pleasant early June day aside from the breeziness of the wind. For tonight, the approaching shortwave trough will result in increasing mid-level clouds overnight. While the low levels will remain dry, guidance remains persistent with indications of some showers approaching from the northwest toward daybreak. Any showers overnight will likely remain mostly northwest of I-78 and are not expected to amount to much QPF wise. A light south to southwest wind can be expected overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. Lows in the mid to upper 50s are forecast for northwest of I-78. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... On Sunday, weak low pressure will pass just to our north, sending a cold front southeastward across the region. Instability is limited and most forcing stays to our north, so right now just have a chance of showers except in the Poconos and northernmost corner of NJ. Timing also isn`t too great as the front appears to pass midday/early afternoon, and the boundary appears to become less defined as it does so, hurting convective chances. Clouds will be common, but it shouldn`t be a totally cloudy day, especially by later in the day after frontal passage. Highs mostly 80s I-95 south and east, 70s north and west. Cooler air pushes southeastward on Sunday night behind the front, with some clearing, relatively light winds, and some radiational cooling. Outside of the Delmarva, immediate coast and urban corridor, 50s should be common. Upper low and trough axis remaining overhead Monday with passing weak shortwaves could result in spotty showers, but odds are pretty low in any one spot, so have mostly slight chance POPs, and mainly NW of I-95. Highs near 80 SE, 70s much of the rest of the area, but 60s in the Pocs. Spotty shower chance dwindles Monday night but reinvigorates Tuesday with continued passing vort maxes. Lows Monday night look similar to Sunday night, but highs Tuesday will be the coolest of the period, with just about the whole CWA no higher than the 70s, with 60s in the Pocs. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Upper ridge with surface high pressure returns Wednesday and Thursday, with dry conditions and warming temperatures enveloping the region. Highs return to the low-mid 80s for most of the region for Wednesday, with mid-upper 80s on Thursday...cooler along the shore and in the Poconos. Lows will return to the 60s for most. By Friday, the next cold front appears to start bearing down on us from the northwest. This will increase the risk of showers and thunderstorms, but will help increase the southwesterly flow, so Friday looks like the warmest day of the forecast, with temps possibly touching 90. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with scattered clouds. West to northwest winds increasing to near 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts at times. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings after 06Z. Winds becoming southwesterly near 5 kts, increasing toward 12Z. High confidence. Outlook... VFR conditions expected to generally prevail Sunday through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of showers Sunday through and Tuesday during daylight hours. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Westerly winds near 10-15 kts today with gusts near 20 kts at times this afternoon, especially near the coast. Winds shifting south to southwest tonight. Seas 3-4 feet. Fair weather. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday: Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. Wind gusts will be 15 kt or less with wave heights 4 feet or less. Slight chance showers Sunday and Tuesday. Rip Currents... For today, west to west-southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a medium period of 7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For Sunday, southwest winds of 10-15 mph combined with wave heights of 1-2 feet and southeasterly swell of 1 foot with a medium period of 6-7 seconds will result in a LOW risk of rip currents. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Staarmann SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...RCM AVIATION...RCM/Staarmann MARINE...RCM/Staarmann