845
FXUS61 KPHI 071938
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
338 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in to our south tonight through Saturday.
A sequence of cold fronts cross through the area on Sunday and again
on Monday. Broad high pressure returns for Tuesday and should
generally dominate through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Near term forecast remains on track with few changes.
Temperatures are mainly in the 80s across the region (with some
upper 70s at higher elevations and where cloud coverage has been
a bit greater so far today) Winds are gradually shifting and
becoming west- northwest and with that change comes stronger
mixing in the boundary layer. Gusty winds this afternoon with
winds generally blowing 10-15kts gusting up to 25kts.

In addition there is some modest ML CAPE with the wind shift which
may be just enough to support an isolated shower making it towards
the Poconos but with the dry air and cold air advection I dont
anticipate much happening in the way of shower activity across the
region.

This evening should be tranquil with winds rapidly declining with
the decoupling of the boundary layer after sunset. Lows
overnight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Brief high
pressure builds in through Saturday keeping sensible weather dry
to start the weekend. With cold air advection through the
evening 925mb temps should be able 2 degrees cooler Saturday
than Friday leading to highs in the upper 70s to low 80s under
partly cloudy to clear skies. Winds continue to be mainly out of
the west-northwest but look to be slightly weaker with gusts up
around 20 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As a whole, Saturday night looks to remain dry other than a slight
chance of a rain shower in the Poconos. Increasing clouds are
expected with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. PoPs will then
increase from northwest to southeast during the day on Sunday as a
frontal system moves through. There won`t be a lot of moisture to
work with (POPs only 20 to 30 percent) but the winds 5 to 10 k ft
off the deck will be fairly strong so it will be a gusty day and any
showers could bring some higher wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph
range. Best chances for showers will be near and north/west of the
urban corridor where better forcing should be present. By Sunday
night, skies will begin to clear and should remain at least partly
cloudy on Monday. At this point, Monday appears to remain mainly dry
as drier air looks to be in place with the secondary frontal
passage. Highs for Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s to low
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level trough eventually pulls away from the area on Monday
night and Tuesday. While there is still some uncertainty in the
forecast beyond this point, the midweek period looks to overall
feature mainly dry weather with a general warming trend over the
Tuesday through Thursday period as the flow aloft should generally
become more zonal. Indications are by Friday it will become hot and
more humid as SW flow strengthens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Highs by this time could be reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s.
This cold front could eventually bring a round of showers and
thunderstorms either by late Friday or early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of Today...VFR. An isolated SHRA may pass over KABE in the
afternoon. W winds increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to
25 kt.

Tonight...VFR with light westerly winds 6-10 kts.

Saturday...VFR. Westerly winds increasing again to 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR expected. Slight chance for
sub- VFR conditions possible on Sunday with a shower. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected.


&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 knots at
times. Seas will average 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected.
Winds will occasionally gust around 15-20 kt through the period with
seas around 2-3 feet. Fair weather expected through Monday with a
slight chance of showers returning on Tuesday.

Rip Currents...

Gusty west winds will develop on Friday, ranging from 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph. With breaking waves of 2 to 3 feet, a
medium period swell, and a New Moon, there is a MODERATE risk for
the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
New Jersey beaches, but a LOW risk at Delaware beaches.

On Saturday, the effects of the New Moon will not be as impactful,
and west winds will be much lighter. The swell will still be onshore
so there will be a Moderate Risk for Atlantic County where the rip
current risk is higher at low tide from roughly Longport to
Brigantine during the afternoon.  Elsewhere, with breaking waves
generally expected to be 1-2 feet there will be a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers.
Utilize any guarded beaches if venturing out into the water. For
specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...AKL/Deal
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons