342
FXUS65 KPIH 041036
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
436 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.
Precipitation has ended across Southeast Idaho with satellite
imagery showing cloud cover shifting further northeast as high
pressure begins building over the western U.S. High pressure ridging
will support a dry and warmer pattern today through mid- to late
week. High temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday`s, right around climatological norms, and widespread
overnight lows will range the 40s and 50s. Expect another 10
degree increase in daytime highs on Wednesday, bringing high
temperatures into the 70s and 80s in the mid-elevations and
valleys and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Elevated 700mb winds
will lend to breezy surface winds again for much of the day across
Southeast Idaho. Portions of the Arco Desert and Snake Plain will
see gusts to around 40 mph and could even briefly reach Wind
Advisory threshold for a couple of hours, but an advisory will
not be issued for these zones given the limited spatial coverage.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY is in effect for American Falls Reservoir
from 6 AM to 9 PM for sustained SW winds up to 25 mph and gusts to
35 mph. Tomorrow should be the last breezy day for the entire
week, with afternoon sustained winds up to 25 mph and gusts to 35
mph over the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. Another Lake
Wind Advisory will likely be issued for American Falls Reservoir.
Cropp

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.
The warming trend will persist into the weekend, courtesy of high
pressure overhead. Widespread daytime highs will reach 15 degrees
above climatological norms by Friday or Saturday, with portions of
the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain reaching into the low
90s for the first time this year. Winds will remain light each day
through the weekend, but models continue to show weak disturbances
working through the ridge late week which will result in breezier
conditions. The National Blend continues to carry low-end PoPs
Thursday through Saturday, with increasing and more widespread
chances for rain showers arriving early next week. Temperatures
will also drop by several degrees each day Sunday and Monday.
Cropp


&&

.AVIATION...Clouds will continue to scatter and clear as high
pressure builds over the region today. Elevated 700mb winds will
lend to breezy surface winds again, with sustained SW to W winds
around 15 kts and gusts 25 to 30 kts for much of the day at KPIH
and KIDA. Expect breezy winds for a shorter duration at the
remaining terminals. Cropp


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The pattern turns dry and warmer beginning today
as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the Southwest.
Elevated winds aloft continue to support breezy conditions at the
surface each afternoon through Wednesday. The strongest winds are
expected across Fire Weather Zone 410, where SW winds will range
25 to 40 mph. Temperatures will continue to increase throughout
the week and are expected to reach into the 90s for some portions
of the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain by Friday. Minimum
humidities will widely range 15 to 30 percent during this
timeframe, but winds should remain light later week. Cropp


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Following a record precipitation event yesterday,
with Stanley receiving 0.63 inch of rain (breaking the old record
of 0.40 inch set in 2001), the Salmon River and its tributaries
show responses but nothing to cause concern. As anticipated,
stretches of the Salmon River have risen 1 to 2 feet and Valley
Creek in Stanley approached bankfull but has since stabilized.
Cropp


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$