072
FXUS65 KPIH 050758
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
158 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Another dry day is expected today, although looking at breezy
conditions once again. NBM once again supports lake wind advisory
for the American Falls Reservoir with sustained winds of 20 to 25
mph. Wind gusts today are roughly in the 30 to 40 mph category today
which falls short of wind advisory levels. Expect temperatures to
climb into the low 80s today as the ridge begins to build into the
area.

On Thursday, the ridge builds into the region and winds look much
lighter. With the ridge comes our first exposure to heat with near
90 degree temperatures possible over the next few days. Chances of
hitting 90 degrees are only about 10% in the upper Snake Plain but
increase to 40 to 50% across the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic
Valley. This ridge will bring with it a fair amount of moisture from
the Pacific. As a result, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening with the peak heating beginning
Thursday and lasting into the weekend.

13

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday.

Ridge will continue to produce warm temperatures into Sunday.
Looking at a 30 to 40% chance of exceeding 90 degrees across the
upper Snake Plain Friday and Saturday, with 50 to 70% chance across
the lower Snake Plain into the eastern Magic Valley both days.
Although a limiting factor will be cloud cover and afternoon
thunderstorm development. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain
possible both days with strong gusty outflow winds possible. On
Sunday, a cold front will push through the region bringing the best
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. This front will
also cool temperatures for early next week with highs likely to be
in the low to mid 80s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic
Valley. Drier weather is expected behind the front as well which
looks like will last through midweek.

13

&&

.AVIATION...Winds are the main concern today at TAF locations with
gusts of 25 to 30 kts possible at Snake Plain sites. Concerned that
winds may be strong enough that KSUN may see more of a westerly
cross wind this afternoon as opposed to the typically upvalley
southerly wind. Will reevaluate this closer to issuance of the 12z
TAFs. Any ceilings today should remain vfr.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected today with gusts of 20 to 30
mph possible this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
return Thursday afternoon with much warmer temperatures. Gusty,
erratic outflow winds are possible in and near thunderstorms. The
threat for storms will continue into the weekend.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A flood warning has been issued for the southern
portion of Teton county. We received a phone call from the Teton
County Emergency Manager of flooding on Fox Creek impacting part of
Highway 33 and the immediate area. This flooding is due to rainfall
from yesterday with much of the Driggs/Victor area receiving between
a quarter inch to a half inch of rain and totals closer to an inch
or inch and a half in the nearby mountains. Additional snowmelt is
also a factor as we are expecting more snow to come off of the
Tetons over the next several days as temperatures warm into the 50s
and 60s on top mountain peaks and only fall to the mid 30s
overnight. River levels have increased on the Teton River, but
remain below action level. On the Salmon River, particularly Valley
Creek at Stanley, levels remain elevated, but also just below action
stage. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$