274
FXUS65 KPIH 090803
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. We are already seeing some showers
and even a few lightning strikes pushing toward the central
mountains early this morning. We will gradually see an increase in
coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Thunder
probabilities are pretty high, although the HREF is likely
overdoing it a bit. The HREF is also pointing to wind gusts of
40-50kts with stronger storms, especially across the Snake Plain,
Magic Valleys, and the South Hills/Albion Mountains. Most of
eastern Idaho is under a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms today. We
may see some small hail with stronger storms as well, but the
overall risk is pretty low. We will see things gradually clearing
this evening from west to east. For Monday, showers and storms
remain possible across the upper end of the Snake Plain, as well
as across eastern and southeast highlands. Temperatures will be
cooler Monday, 5 or so degrees cooler across the board.  Keyes

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday. The middle part of the week
will be dry, warm and breezy. We will be pushing 90 in typical
warm spots with this patter. By Friday and into next weekend, a
splitting storm moves into the western U.S. and eventually into
Idaho. Increasing southwest flow will allow for temperatures to
remain similar to midweek`s forecast, despite an increase in
clouds and/or storms. With another deep low dropping into our
area, we should see temperatures back down into 70s at lower
elevations. Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...We should a better chance of showers and storms for
all of central and eastern Idaho. We are carrying VCSH or VCTS for
TAFs through this evening. Stronger storms may produce gusts over
40kts, especially for PIH, IDA and BYI. There is a very low risk
of small hail as well later today. Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...We will see an increase in shower/thunderstorm
coverage and potential for rainfall during the day. Lightning
probabilities reach 30-60% across all of central and eastern Idaho
except right around Bear Lake. Chance of wetting rains will be
highest across the central mountains where they peak at 45-75%
this afternoon and evening. Another "peak" will be across the
South Hills/Albion Mountains and south end of the Magic Valley
(Zones 425 and 427), where they hit 45-65%. Elsewhere, look for an
average of 20-40%. Lingering showers and storms are expected
Monday across portions of Zones 410, 411, 413 and 476. Rainfall
potential drops off quite a bit, with only 20-40% around Island
Park on the high end. Tuesday-Thursday still looks dry, warm and
breezy across all areas.  Keyes


&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect for the Teton River near Driggs
as small streams/creeks and the main stem river continue to run
high. Minor flooding is being observed on the main stem river and
is expected to remain at that level through much of next week,
aided by additional snowmelt from the Tetons and Big Holes.
Further downstream along the Teton River near St. Anthony, that
gage has reached action stage and is forecast to reach that
tonight and remain elevated into next week.

Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains are also seeing
diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell Ranch
currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River,
increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also led to the
Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and it is
expected to stay there for at least the next week. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$