970
FXUS65 KPIH 130748
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
148 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday

- The potential for storms returns starting today

- Critical fire weather conditions possible especially Monday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warmer and dry conditions (in terms of humidity anyway)
continues through Monday, with things beginning to cool off a
bit starting Tuesday. A couple of "weak waves" cross the area
today and tomorrow. This will serve to pop off some isolated dry
storms late this afternoon and evening from around Copper Basin
through Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts over 35
mph with some indications of highest gusts near 45 mph. We
should see these storms move northeast and diminish after
sunset. We will see another round Monday generally north of a
Palisades to Copper Basin line, including some storms across
the Upper Snake Plain. We may also a few storms south of Burley
and across the southeast highlands. There is a 10-50% chance of
gusts over 35 mph (location dependent) with the best potential
from the Arco Desert through Island Park. There is very low
potential for gusts over 50 mph in that area, according to the
higher resolution probability forecasts. We will also some
gusty winds OUTSIDE storms. The trends are toward 20-25 mph
gusts today across the INL, Craters, the Magic Valley and South
Hills/Albion Mountains. On Monday, more widespread gusts of
20-30 mph are expected (outside of Island Park and Driggs), with
gusts up to 35 mph across the Magic Valley, Craters and the
INL. There is a 10-30% chance of exceeding 35 mph in those
spots. Starting Tuesday, low pressure drops south into the
Northern Rockies...and to some extent portions of the Great
Basin and Pacific Northwest. It will be cooler, but it remains
breezy along with a better chance of showers and storms,
especially across the northeast corner.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Behind an exiting trough over the Continental Divide on Wednesday,
near normal to below normal temperatures will continue with highs in
the 70s/80s/90s as best chances for isolated showers/thunderstorms
shift to being along the Montana and Wyoming border regions. Outside
of that 10-20% chance of showers and storms in the mountains, dry
conditions are expected elsewhere as zonal flow prevails and
temperatures see a warming trend into the weekend under the
increasing influence of high pressure overhead. This will be the
going trend as we finish out the week as monsoonal moisture remains
to our south and a series of shortwave troughs remain situated
further north. Given our position here in the Intermountain West in
between these two features, dry conditions are expected to continue
outside of some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in that
10-20% chance range each afternoon, primarily in the mountains, with
high temperatures remaining steady each day in the 80s/90s. The
latest CPC 8-14 Day Outlooks keep this trend going with a 50-60%
chance of above normal temperatures and 33-40% chance of below
normal precipitation from Sunday July 20th to Saturday July
26th.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1003 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Expect VFR conditions through the period. Winds back off this
evening and become slightly increased (gusts up to 15kts)
tomorrow afternoon. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms along the Montana Divide tomorrow afternoon with
moisture moving in ahead of a very weak trough moving over the
Montana Divide area later Tuesday. Expect mid level clouds
mainly for SUN, IDA, and DIJ in the afternoon tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 107 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Warmer and dry conditions (in terms of humidity) will continue
into Monday. A couple of "weak waves" will shift across central
and eastern Idaho today and tomorrow. This will do 2 things:
help kick off a few dry thunderstorms and provide an uptick in
wind both days. Looking at thunderstorm potential, the most
likely area for isolated storms today is from around Copper
Basin through Gilmore Summit and east toward Island Park. A
storm around Challis and Salmon are also not out of the
question. There is a 30% chance or less of gusts over 35 mph
with storms and a very low chance of outflow gusts reaching 45
mph. For Monday, the potential is there generally north of a
Copper Basin to Palisades line. A few storms are also possible
across the South Hills and Albion Mountains. There is a 50%
chance or less of gusts over 35 mph, with some gusts over 50 mph
possible. The most likely area for the strongest winds will be
across the Arco Desert through Island Park. Looking at the
overall wind situation, gusts up to 25 mph are possible across
the INL (410), Magic Valley 425) and South Hills/Albion
Mountains (427). We will be CLOSE in terms hitting critical fire
weather condition thresholds this afternoon and evening. Winds
are stronger and more widespread on Monday. Outside of across
Zone 411, gusts of 25-35 mph will be common. The strongest gusts
are across the central mountains (475/476), Upper Snake Plain
(410), Magic Valley (425) and South Hills/Albion Mountains
(427). We tried to nudge the Blend of Models a bit higher based
on some the higher end gusts shown in the probability forecasts.
There is still a 10-30% of higher than 35 mph in these areas, so
there is room to adjust the forecast either direction. We may
indeed need RED FLAG WARNINGS for Monday in some areas, but will
let day shift folks coordinate with dispatch centers and the
GACC on that. Low pressure drops south in the northwestern U.S.,
bringing some quick relief in terms of hotter and drier
conditions. We do trade that off though for more widespread
gusty winds and a better chance of showers and storms,
especially closer to the Montana border. This pattern continues
through midweek, although with the flow becoming more
westerly...we do lose the thunderstorm potential except across
Zone 411 in the northeast corner. We do return to warmer
temperatures though later in the week, although we may not end
up thunderstorm-free during that stretch.  Stay tuned.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes