934
FXUS65 KPIH 080744
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
144 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday. We still have enough moisture
around later today for isolated showers and thunderstorms. While a
brief burst of rain is possible, gusts near 40 mph will be the
main threat from storms today. Temperatures should be within a
couple of degrees above/below Friday`s afternoon highs. We will
see a few lingering showers overnight, before Sunday`s round of
rain and thunder arrives in the morning. Tomorrow looks to be the
wettest and most stormy day of the weekend. Blend of model thunder
probabilities are running 30-50% over most areas except across
the Magic Valley and the far southeast corner. HREF thunder
probabilities are running 20% HIGHER than the Blend. The HREF
might be a bit overdone especially if we end with too much morning
activity. We did push everyone to 30% or higher except around
Bear Lake. We should see a much better chance of rain with storms,
along with gusty winds. We should things gradually clearing from
southwest to northeast tomorrow night. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday. The storm moving into the
western states Monday will split, with a closed low offshore of
California and the northern end keep a chance of showers and
storms around...especially across the eastern highlands. For most
of next week...we will see a dry, westerly flow across the state.
This means it will be breezy each afternoon and evening. By the
end of next week, southwest flow develops as a strong area of low
pressure forms to our north and west. Moisture is limited, so our
Blend of Models forecast only has isolated showers and storms
around at that point.  Keyes

&&

.AVIATION...Expect another round of showers and thunderstorms
later today, although coverage looks less than what we saw Friday.
We will have VCSH or VCTS, site dependent, at various times. The
risk of thunderstorms runs to around midnight. A brief downpour
along with wind gusts over 35 kts are possible with most storms.
Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...We will another round of showers and storms today,
although coverage will be limited. Raw thunder probabilities are
running up to 20%, possibly as high as 30% across Zone 427. We
nudged down to keep them at 20% or less in the forecast. The risk
of thunderstorms actually will extend until around midnight...with
lingering showers after midnight.Chance of wetting rains will run
well under 10% through tonight. Wind gusts over 35 mph are the
main issue with storms today. Sunday will be the wettest day of
the weekend, along with the highest potential for thunderstorms
across the area. Our Blend of Models lightning probabilities are
running 30-50% everywhere EXCEPT across the Magic Valley and
across 413 near Bear Lake. Other high- resolution probabilities
are running 20% higher, but may be overdone...especially with the
potential for morning rain and thunderstorms. We did push the
final potential above 30% except around the Bear Lake area. Gusty
winds are once again likely. Chance of wetting rains will be under
20% across the southeast corner of 413 and also north of Idaho
Falls in 410. Elsewhere, percentages increase with the highest
probabilities across the central mountains and the higher
elevations of Zone 427. Showers and storms gradually clear
northwest to southeast tomorrow night and Monday. Most of next
week should end up dry and warmer. It does look breezy though as a
strong westerly flow sets up across the state and region. Keyes

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING is now in effect for the Teton River near Driggs
as small streams/creeks and the main stem river continue to run
high. Minor flooding is in the forecast starting tonight on the
main stem river and is expected to remain at that level through
much of next week, aided by additional snowmelt from the Tetons
and Big Holes. Further downstream along the Teton River near St.
Anthony, that gage is also nearing action stage and is forecast to
reach that tonight and remain elevated into next week.

Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains are also seeing
diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell Ranch
currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River,
increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also led to the
Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and it is
expected to stay there for at least the next week. MacKay

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$