Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
203 FXZS60 NSTU 190105 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 205 PM SST Sat May 18 2024 .DISCUSSION... Streamline analysis from HFO this morning (18/18Z) places the ridge to the south and west of the area, over the Fiji Islands. The latest satellite imageries shows open cell cumuli clouds moving across the territory from the east. This feature is associated with a broad high pressure system to the south- southeast moving eastward. Model data is showing a mid-level high pressure system dominating weather patterns for the majority of the forecast period. As the mid-level high pressure system remains nearly stationary over the area, this will suppress the growth of any instability over the islands, and sustain the wind strength to moderate to fresh easterlies. Minimal rainshowers will move over the area in the form of brief passing showers, instead of flash flooding conditions. As soon as the high pressure system exits the region by midweek, an equatorial easterly flow will prevail and continue to sustain the moderate easterlies over the area through the end of the new week. Therefore, expect scattered to numerous showers, heavy at brief times with moderate to fresh easterlies for tonight through midweek. Winds will decrease to light and gentle briefly on Wednesday before increasing to at least moderate easterlies on Wednesday night through the end of the forecast past. Sky cover will likely increase at this time frame, also. && .Marine... Seas have been remaining in the lower end of the advisory threshold level for the last couple of hours. This if further supported by the trend shown on model data together with the satellite swaths. The fresh easterlies will likely sustain rough and choppy conditions, and strong rip currents in the coastal areas through at least Tuesday. Will continue to monitor conditions for any updates. In the meantime, advisories for small crafts and high surfs will remain in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen