Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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225 FXUS65 KPSR 250550 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1050 PM MST Fri May 24 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... A weak area of low pressure will move over the region during the front half of the weekend, resulting in a quick relative cooldown and breezy to locally windy conditions. The strongest gusts will be focused over southeast California this afternoon and evening, with more widespread breeziness developing again on Saturday. Temperatures will quickly warm up into the triple digits by the end of the Memorial Day Weekend, with further warming into the start of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... Atmospheric analysis reveals quasi-zonal flow over our forecast area, with a weak shortwave trough just west of the California Coast. Before negative height anomalies associated with this system move onshore, temperatures today will hover around what we have seen over the past several days. Afternoon highs will continue to run in the middle and upper 90s across the lower deserts, which is right at normal for this time of year. Although this disturbance is not expected to move over our area until late tonight/early Saturday morning, its influence will be felt across portions of the Desert Southwest as early as this afternoon/evening as breezy to locally windy conditions begin to develop. The strongest winds will focus over parts of SE California, where gusts 30-40 mph will be common. HREF guidance continues to show high probabilities (>80%) of winds exceeding 40 mph over parts of the Imperial Valley, resulting in a Wind Advisory being posted for this area that will be in effect this afternoon through the evening hours. Elsewhere across southwestern and south-central Arizona, peak gusts will generally range between 20-30 mph, with isolated higher gusts around the Colorado River Valley and enhanced terrain features. Once the aforementioned trough moves onshore, regional heights aloft will decrease as cooler air begins to spread over our forecast area. Afternoon highs on Saturday, as a result, are forecasted to range between the upper 80s to lower 90s, a good 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Enhanced flow aloft will likely yield breezy conditions across Arizona again on Saturday, with the highest gusts focused over high-terrain areas. However, the wind forecast has become a bit murkier since yesterday. The NBM favors gusts near 30-35 mph over Gila County, while the newest HREF guidance has gust only reaching near 25 mph over the same areas. This disagreement appears to stem from some models having the strongest flow aloft occurring before the hours of peak mixing, limiting the transfer of the highest momentum winds down to the surface. Nonetheless, it would not be surprising to see wind gusts range somewhere in between these two ensemble forecasts, with gusts ranging between 25-30 mph, with the occasional gust near 35 mph. Peak gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected across the lower elevations of south-central and southwestern Arizona. Familiar terrain-driven winds will push gusts for parts of SE California towards 30-35 mph once again on Saturday afternoon/evening, but winds should remain below advisory-levels. Future guidance remains in excellent agreement regarding a developing amplified ridging pattern in the wake of the previously discussed trough. Heights aloft will quickly rise through the latter portion of the weekend, resulting in a quick rebound of day-to-day temperatures. Daytime highs by Sunday will be back in the middle to upper 90s across the lower deserts before rising further into the triple digits for many areas by Memorial Day. Projections show the ridge continuing to amplify into the next work week, leading to further warming. Widespread 100-105 degree temperatures are forecasted by Tuesday, with similar conditions expected once again on Wednesday. This pattern will promote tranquil and very dry conditions, yielding near-zero rain chances for the next several days and likely through the end of the month, barring any significant changes to ensembles guidance in the near future. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: Westerly winds around 10 kt will continue into the overnight hours before switching to easterly around 10-11Z with speeds aob 8 kt. Winds will then switch back westerly during the mid-to-late morning hours. Westerly winds will then gust 15-20 kt during the afternoon and early evening hours before decoupling after sunset with speeds lessening to aob 7 kt for the evening and overnight hours. Clear skies will continue through the TAF period. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will remain westerly at KIPL and southwesterly at KBLH through the TAF period. Wind speeds have started to come down at both sites. At KIPL winds will gust to around 25 kt through the overnight hours before picking back up with gusts of 25-30 kt for the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. At KBLH winds will gust around 25 kt over the next couple of hours before lessening to speeds around 10 kt for the overnight and morning hours tomorrow. Winds will then gust 15-20 kt during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. Clear skies will continue through the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions will exist today and Saturday over parts of the western districts and high terrain of the eastern districts as a weak system helps to generate breezy to locally windy conditions. Strongest winds (35-45 mph peak gusts) will be focused over the western districts and enhanced terrain areas, with 20-30 mph gusts expected elsewhere. MinRH values during this timeframe will increase slightly from 10-15% today, to 10-20% Saturday. Overnight recoveries will be fair tonight and Saturday night at around 30-50% and locally higher in high terrain locations. Hot and dry conditions will persist beyond Saturday, with generally lighter winds speeds and typical afternoon breeziness each day. Daily highs will reach the century mark in many lower desert locations by Monday and values generally top out between 100-105 through the middle of next week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ562. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ563-566-567. && $$ DISCUSSION...RW AVIATION...Berislavich FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/RW