429
FXUS65 KPSR 221125
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
425 AM MST Wed May 22 2024

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be near normal through the weekend before warming
back above normal during the first part of next week. Typical
afternoon and early evening springtime breeziness will continue
into the weekend, with the highest wind speeds expected on Friday.
Dry conditions will persist into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern through the rest of the week will keep large
scale broad troughing dominant over much of the Western U.S.,
including the Desert Southwest. A series of shortwave troughs will
continue to rotate within the larger scale trough, but each
disturbance will mostly stay to the north of our region. Given
the influence from the trough, H5 heights over Arizona are
forecast to remain near climatological normals through the
upcoming weekend. NBM forecast temperatures through Friday have
trended slightly upward over the past couple days, but highs are
still expected to top out within the normal range over the next
few days with highs mostly in the mid 90s.

For Friday into Saturday, one of the passing disturbances is
likely to extend far enough south to have more influence over the
Desert Southwest. As a result, Friday should see a bit of an
uptick in winds, especially across southeast California where
gusts of 25-35 mph are likely to be possible. H5 heights should
also briefly dip lower for Saturday which should have a noticeable
impact on temperatures as the latest NBM guidance shows highs
falling back closer to 90 degrees. However, this "cooler" weather
will be short-lived as a ridge is likely to begin building into
our region from the south starting Sunday before peaking around
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Forecast temperatures quickly
trend upward early next week with highs potentially reaching 100
degrees as early as Memorial Day. Guidance also shows a 50/50 shot
at reaching 105 degrees over a good portion of the lower deserts
mid next week before beginning to trend back lower at some point
later next week. Through the entire timeframe, skies are forecast
to be clear to mostly clear with no rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1125Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Typical diurnal wind tendencies will prevail at all terminals with
clear skies. Winds will increase up to 8-12 kts in the afternoon
and evening with gusts up to 15-20 kts. Otherwise, winds will be
light with periods of variability during the overnight and morning
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions, near normal temperatures, and typical afternoon
and early evening breeziness will continue through Thursday. Winds
will tend to follow their typical diurnal tendencies and terrain
influences in all districts with periodic gusts up to around 20
mph in the afternoon and early evenings. A passing dry weather
system on Friday into Saturday is likely to bring an increase in
winds with gusts of 20-30 mph over a good portion of the area.
This could lead to areas of elevated fire weather conditions
mainly on Friday. MinRH values through the weekend will mostly
fall to between 8-15% each day with overnight MaxRHs mostly
between 25-40%. Temperatures over the weekend will be near to
slightly below normal before warming to above normal early next
week as stronger high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman