Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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460 FXUS65 KPSR 090534 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1034 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2024 .UPDATE... 06z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Slightly cooler, although above normal, temperatures are forecast through the weekend into Monday. Expect temperatures to heat up by the middle of next week due in large part to high pressure building into the region. Dry conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... For the short term, weak circulation associated with a very weak upper-level low located over the Sonoran Desert region of the northwest corner of Mexico continues to gradually move northward into AZ helping to slightly lower 500 mb heights dropping temps a couple of degrees. Expect low temperatures this evening to dip to the low 80s for the Phoenix Metro and low to mid 70s for the surrounding region. Expect low temps to fall to the upper 60s in higher mountain elevations. Along with the cooler temperatures, the weak upper-level low will also help enhance somewhat the early evening breeziness across the area, with the potential for some gusts exceeding 30 mph at times across portions of western Imperial County. Upper level clouds will continue to build into the eastern portions of the CWA this evening, slightly clearing overnight, building back in tomorrow during the day. Winds will continue to generally favor diurnal tendencies with occasional afternoon gusts of 20-25 mph expected across most of the region tomorrow. Heading into next week, model guidance continues to remain in pretty good agreement in the overall synoptic pattern as another upper-level low is set to cutoff off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja by Monday with a ridge strengthening across the southwestern CONUS. There still continues to be some discrepancies examining the ensemble cluster analysis in the overall positioning/strength of the cutoff low, which will dictate the positioning of the ridge downstream. Latest trend indicates a pretty robust ridge building across NM/AZ by midweek with 500 mb height fields rising above 590dm across most of the region with values as high as 594-597dm across the eastern half of AZ through NM. Therefore, an uptick in temperatures can be expected heading into the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe with another round of excessive heat conditions possible, especially across the south- central AZ lower deserts, as highs will likely once again reach 110+ degrees and potentially necessitating the issuance of new excessive heat products. Ensemble and cluster analysis shows a cutoff low eventually making its way through the region by the end of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Heading into next weekend, a more potent large-scale trough will approach the Pacific Northwest and traverse the western CONUS. However, there is a large degree of spread amongst the ensembles and large uncertainty in cluster analysis on the overall depth and position of the trough, which will dictate whether or not the Desert Southwest will see any impacts in the form increased winds, further cooling, and potential precipitation. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast period. Winds will follow typical diurnal patterns with easterly flow become reestablished by 07Z at KIWA and 09Z at KPHX. Speeds should remain aob 8 kts overnight. There will be a period of S-SE crosswinds at KPHX tomorrow morning through early tomorrow afternoon before winds finally shift out of the SW by 21Z-22Z. High clouds will remain FEW-SCT at 20-25 kft over the region through tomorrow afternoon. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period. Winds will continue to favor a southerly component at KBLH with speeds remaining around 10-11 kts. Gusts up to 20 kts will be possible at KBLH by tomorrow afternoon. At KIPL, gusty westerly winds will subside over the next few hrs and are expected to shift out of the southeast after sunrise tomorrow morning. Skies will remain mostly clear over southeast CA with the exception of a few passing high clouds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonably dry conditions will continue to support a high fire danger across the area into late next week. Slightly cooler temperatures, although still remaining above normal, can be expected through Sunday before heating up once again heading into the middle of next week. Winds will continue to generally favor diurnal tendencies with occasional afternoon breeziness of 20-25 mph expected across most of the region. MinRHs ranging between 5-15% with poor to fair overnight recoveries of between 20-45% will be common. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95/Lojero AVIATION...Salerno FIRE WEATHER...95/Lojero