Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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936 FXUS65 KPUB 210244 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 844 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers anticipated along the mountains tonight, with dry conditions expected elsewhere. - Mountains showers continue through tomorrow, with isolated to scattered showers possible elsewhere during the afternoon. - Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms possible from Thu into the holiday weekend, especially across the mountains and Palmer Divide. - Increase in fire danger possible Thursday as winds strengthen. && .UPDATE... Issued at 841 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Updated forecast to allow Red Flag Warning to expire on time over the southeast mountains. Conditions have improved to above warning thresholds this evening. Winds are expected to continue to weaken and humidity values are expected to continue to improve after sunset this evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Tonight: Relatively quiet conditions are expected for much of south central and southeastern Colorado Monday night. Broad troughing will be in place, and a short wave will eject to the NE over the region during the evening and overnight hours. Forcing will already be heightened across the area, and this wave will help it surge during this period. With the increased synoptic, and orographic, forcing, showers are expected to blossom across the area, though mostly along the mountains where forcing will be most focused. Given the direction of flow, some showers may get pushed off of the higher terrain and move across the valleys. Otherwise though, dry conditions are anticipated. Along with all of that though, a dryline will be sitting across the eastern plains during the evening hours. While shear and instability would be supportive of organized and severe thunderstorms, a strong and strengthening cap is expected to stunt any convective growth, and confidence in any thunderstorm development remains very low (<19%). If a thunderstorm were to blossom and become mature, severe weather would be likely, with all severe modes possible. Looking at temperatures, a relatively warm and mild night is anticipated given downsloping westerly winds. The plains will drop into the upper 40s to mid 40s, the valleys cooling into the 30s, and the mountains sinking into the 20s. Tomorrow: For Tuesday showery weather continues for portions of the area. The broad trough will continue to be in place over south central and southeastern Colorado, keeping the synoptic and orographic forcing ongoing. This will allow for showers to continue over the mountains, especially the central mountains, where forcing will be strongest. Like Monday night, given the direction of the flow from the southwest, some showers along the higher terrain are expected to become shoved across the valleys during49 the day. Along with that, a cold front will be draped across the eastern plains, generally from El Paso County to the southeast over Prowers/Baca Counties area. Forcing along this front, and surface upsloping behind it, is anticipated to aid in additional isolated to scattered rain shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon, though particularly along the Palmer Divide, where surface upsloping will be greatest. Otherwise, some afternoon clouds and dry conditions outside of afternoon showers are expected for much of the region. As for temperatures, a cool down is anticipated given the front and unsettled pattern overhead. The plains will rise into the low 70s to low 80s, the valleys reaching into the mid 50s to mid 60s, and the mountains warming into the mid 30s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper wave moves through the area Tue night, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to mainly the northern half of the area, along and north of Highway 50. Lack of instability will be the limiting factor for heavy precip and severe storms Tue evening, as surface CAPE is less than 500 J/KG across the eastern plains, though strong shear (0-6km bulk shear is 70 kts) and dynamic lift with the passing wave could contribute to some briefly strong storms along the Palmer Divide. Any precip exits the area by early Wed morning, with sly surface winds already returning to the plains by Wed afternoon. Very slight chance of some showers/thunderstorms over the ern mountains and adjacent plains Wed afternoon as airmass becomes weakly unstable, though deterministic models have trended drier the past few runs. Slight mid-level cooling will knock just a couple degf off of daytime maxes, leaving 60s/70s widespread across the region. Thursday looks breezy/warmer/drier as low/mid level flow turn southwesterly ahead of next upper trough sliding eastward into the nrn Rockies. Again, best upward motion stays mainly north of the area as wave moves into the nrn plains, with low chances for convection Fri/Fri evening as weak post-frontal upslope develops on the plains and some secondary energy slides across. Temps Thu will climb to well above average levels, falling back toward seasonal averages Fri. Still another wave moves by to north during the weekend, and at least a few 20/12z models hint at the possibility of stronger convection over the area as low level moisture potentially sloshes back west on the plains. Still a lot of mesoscale details to go before latching onto this scenario, so stuck with NBM pops for now, which keep precip again confined to areas north of Highway 50 once again, but given the holiday weekend, situation should be monitored for any increase in rainfall chances and severe storm potential. Wrn upper ridge then appears to amplify next week, with a slow warming trend possible, though northwest upper flow and lingering low level moisture may lead to some afternoon convection along and east of the mountains Mon/Tue. Weekend/early next week temps look to say a few degf above seasonal averages each day, though no extreme heat is expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 536 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS for the next 24 hours. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue for the next couple of hours, and will weaken after sunset this evening. Breezy southwesterly winds will return tomorrow, with gusts to 35kt at KALS. Some afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm activity is likely across the area tomorrow, with the highest confidence of vicinity showers for KCOS after 21Z tomorrow afternoon. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...EHR SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...EHR