502
FXUS65 KPUB 240928
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler today, with an isolated rumble of thunder possible
  along the Mtns/Plains interface late this afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible with best chances
  along the the ContDvd on Saturday.

- Warming into the middle of next week with increasing chances for
  storms over the eastern plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Currently...

An area of mid level cloudiness was noted over the high country of
southern Colorado, mainly along and south of US50. Some radar echoes
were noted, but believe this is likely virga being picked up by the
88Ds. OVer the rest of the region it was clear. Temps at 3 AM over
the plains ranged from the M50s to M40s. with M40s over the San Luis
Valley. MTns were generally in the 20s and 30s. Winds were already
becoming upslope over the plains as the front has cleared into New
Mexico.

Today...

Noticeably cooler today, as temps will be 10 to 15F cooler today on
the plains as compared to yesterdays max temps. Over the mtns and
valleys, temps today will be similar to yesterdays max temps. It
will be dry over nearly all the region today, although there will be
isolated rumbles of thunder over the mtns/plains interface region
late this afternoon and early evening. Clouds will increase over
most regions today.  Overall expect max temps on the plains to range
from the U60s to U70s, with temps around 70F over the larger
valleys. Diurnal flow will occur. With cooler temps over the region
and lighter winds, the fire weather concerns today over the region
are very low.

Tonight...

All areas are expected to be dry. Another short wave will move to
eastward well to our north, but this may be enough to bring some
passing showers to the central mtns, especially north of Cottonwood
Pass. There will also be a very low end chance of some showers over
the far north sections of the Pikes Peak region. Min temps tonight
twill be in the 40s across the plains and around 40F SLV. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday-Sunday...Moderate west to southwest flow aloft continues across
the region into the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend, with one embedded
short wave expected to translate across the Central Rockies through
the day Saturday and into Central High Plains Saturday night. Increasing
southwest flow across the region ahead of the wave leads to another
warm and breezy day with the return of critical fire weather conditions,
especially across the southeast mountains, where fuels are deemed
critical below 7500 feet and will keep the current Fire Weather Watch
in tact for FWZ 225. Increasing mid level moisture and some uvv associated
with the wave will bring good chances of showers and storms to the
higher terrain along and west of the ContDvd on Saturday, especially
the higher terrain of the central mtns, where there could be some
light snow accumulations, generally above 10K feet. Otherwise, a
few showers/storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening,
mainly north of the Highway 50 Corridor, with the passing wave
sending a weak front across the plains Saturday night with drier
air in place across the region on Sunday leading only a few possible
afternoon high based showers across the central mts into the Pikes
Peak region, along with possible critical fire weather conditions
once again across the southeast mtns. Temperatures on Saturday
warm back to above seasonal levels in the 80s to low 90s across
the Plains with mainly 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain,
save for 30s and 40s at the peaks. Temperatures on Sunday look
to be at to slightly cooler than Saturday`s readings.

Monday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging builds across the Rockies
through the middle of next week, with temperatures expected to warm
back to above seasonal levels through the middle of the week. This,
along with increasing low level moisture within developing low level
easterly flow with surface high pressure building across the High
Plains, will lead to increasing chances of afternoon showers and
storms across the eastern mtns and plains into the middle of next
week. Models do indicate moderate instability in place, leading
to the potential for a few stronger storms, especially Tuesday
and Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Southwest flow aloft increases once again for
the end of the work week, with the potential for stronger storms
along a dryline pushing east across the plains. Temperatures look
to remain at and above seasonal levels through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS for the next 24 hours. A cold front has passed through KCOS and
KPUB this evening, which will keep northerly and northeasterly winds
in place through the overnight hours at both stations. Easterly and
southeasterly winds are expected for both stations tomorrow. Some
showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher terrain west
of KCOS tomorrow, though confidence in any storms moving over or
near station are low at this time. For KALS, light winds are
expected through the overnight hours, with southwesterly winds
gusting to 25kt after 21Z tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH