571
FXUS62 KRAH 071040
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
645 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move in with less humid air for the weekend. A
passing disturbance will bring unsettled weather Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Central NC will be in the rear of the departing mid/upper trough and
surface cold front this morning. High pressure will build to the
Appalachians later today and tonight. Interestingly, temperatures
will not fall much behind the front; however, dew points and the
relative humidity values will. Expect highs today in the mid to
upper 80s west and north and lower 90s SE. Dew points will fall into
the 40s west and 50s east late today. Clear skies tonight with light
winds will yield comfortable lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies with highs in the 85-90
range. Relative humidities will continue to be much lower than the
historical averages for June. There will be some increase in mostly
high level moisture on Saturday night, especially late. This may
help keep temperatures up a bit. Lows should still drop into the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 238 AM Friday...

Sun: Models continue to show a cold front slated to move through
late Sun night into early Mon. Ahead of the front, a lee trough will
set up with warm southwest flow and thicknesses in the low levels
near 1424m. This should push our highs back well above normal in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. A decaying MCS will likely be somewhere from
the MO/AR region into portions of the TN valley. Some of this
decaying storm complex could bring patchy showers to the far NW
Piedmont, but mostly it would bring convective debris high clouds
for the start of the day. Those clouds should break up for the
afternoon. Storms later in the day/evening could fire along the lee
trough ahead of the front over the NW Piedmont, though most guidance
holds off until late in the evening with another disturbance in the
WNW flow aloft. Difficult to say what storm coverage may look like
with lack of model agreement on rain amounts, so have kept chance
PoPs, focused mainly on the night time hours. Instability is also
uncertain, with highest amounts over our southern zones, though
shear is certainly supportive for a stronger storm or two.

Mon-Thu: Uncertainty remains rather high during this period. A look
at the deterministic and ensemble guidance shows two potential
scenarios. The more dry solutions indicate a more WNW flow aloft to
start the period with troughing over the Mid-Atlantic region. This
would then transition to ridging or WSW flow by Wed-Thu. While these
solutions would largely be dry, there could still be a chance of
showers Mon night into Tue as some guidance suggests a more potent
shortwave moving through - though it would have to overcome a drier
airmass. Roughly 65-70 percent of the 12z ensembles would favor this
pattern and are represented by the 00z deterministic ECMWF/CMC.

The wetter solutions represent about 23-30 percent of the 12z
probabilistic guidance and is represented partly by the 00z
GFS/GEFS. These members show a shortwave digging SE out of the
central US Mon and moving east to northeast into the TN/OH valleys
Tue/Wed before reaching the NE US Thu. This pattern would bring a
surface low into the region and favor a more wet period with a fetch
of moisture from the Gulf/Atlantic. Suffice to say, given the
uncertainty, we kept low-end chance PoPs, highest on Tue/Wed.
Temperatures are consequently also unclear, but should hover in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 645 AM Friday...

24-hour TAF period: A cold front will move through the area this
morning. Generally VFR conditions are expected today and tonight.
W/NW winds will increase from late morning into the afternoon,
gusting up to 20-20 kts.

Outlook: A moisture starved cold front and upper disturbance could
bring some isolated showers or storms Sunday night and Monday.
Otherwise, mostly dry VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday,
but confidence in the forecast once we get to Tuesday is low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...Badgett/Danco