592
FXUS62 KRAH 030528
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front
will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas
through Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the region
Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

* Widespread torrential showers and storms will shift east of the
  forecast area over the next few hours. Scattered shallow showers
  remain possible through this evening along the cold front.

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis prominently shows the
positively-tilted through axis extending down through the Mid-
Atlantic in the Southeast with a plume of anomalous deep-layer
moisture draped over the Carolinas towards the Delmarva Peninsula.
Surface dew points in the mid 70s and breaks in cloud cover,
especially from the Triangle eastward, has resulted in tall, skinny
instability profiles with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Within the
past few hours, convective temperatures have been reached across the
warm sector and allowed numerous showers and scattered storms to
develop in addition to the ongoing more localized convection
surrounding several MCVs that are rotating through the Triangle and
northern Sandhills.

This activity is expected to gradually shift eastward towards the
coast through this afternoon and clearing the I-95 corridor by
around 5PM with only isolated/scattered convection through 8-10PM.
The primary concern though 5PM will be torrential downpours, which
will be capable to backbuilding/training over the same area for a
period of time. This will result in a risk for isolated to scattered
flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Most locations should
experience 0.1-1" with the potential for 2-3" where the deepest
storms develop. However, where backbuilding/training occurs, locally
as much as 5" will certainly be possible. Lows tonight will remain
mild and settle in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

* Minimal coverage in diurnal showers Thursday with a return of
  above normal temperatures.

Quieter weather is expected with only a weak shear axis rippling
through the westerly flow aloft to act as much synoptic forcing.
Drier air through the depth of the troposphere will be deposited
over central NC and should limit coverage/intensity of any afternoon
showers/storms. Best chances will be down across the Coastal Plain
into the Sandhills where closer proximity to PWAT around 1.5" and
MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg may be able to overcome the dry air aloft.
Otherwise, less cloud cover and minimal airmass change behind the
cold front will result in above average temperatures with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be similarly mild in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Wednesday...

* Mostly dry conditions on Friday and Saturday, with afternoon rain
  chances increasing Sunday through Wednesday.

* Near normal temperatures expected.

Friday and Saturday the region will be under the influence of high
pressure and upper level ridging. This should keep the forecast
mostly dry, with just a slight chance of showers and storms in the
far southeast each afternoon. Diurnal rain chances increase again
starting Sunday afternoon for the rest of the long term. This is in
part due to the potential tropical development off the coast. There
is still a lot of uncertainty with if a tropical system will form,
but regardless of formation, increased moisture will move back into
the region which will allow for an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon from Sunday to Wednesday.

Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normal each day in the
long term. On Friday, maximum temperatures should be in the upper
80s to low 90s. From Saturday to Monday, highs should be in the
upper 80s to around 90, increasing to low to mid 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Along with this, heat indices should be in the upper 80s
to mid 90s from Friday to Monday, with heat indices over 100
possible starting on Tuesday. Lows should generally be in the upper
60s to low 70s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 AM Thursday...

A difficult first 6 hours of the TAF period across the central NC
terminals. The main challenge will be the expansion of stratus and
fog across RDU, RWI, and FAY. The strongest signal for fog appears
at RDU. However, recent observational trends suggest FAY and RWI
could also see the fog as high clouds clear out. The latest TAF
shows high potential for fog at these sites. The LIFR conditions
should lift to VFR between 12-14z, slowest to lift at FAY/RWI. At
GSO/INT, one concern is that a cold front is still to the NW. Radar
has shown storm development along the front, west of INT. Confidence
is low that a storm will affect INT but included a TEMPO for the
first few hours given recent guidance from the NAM-NEST. If a storm
were to move over INT or GSO, low stratus and fog may need to be
added. VFR should prevail for most of the aftn/eve at all terminals,
but cannot rule out a stray storm during peak heating. Confidence
was too low to include at any of the terminals.

After 06Z Friday: Some low stratus or fog may be possible Fri
morning. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun
into early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Kren/Swiggett