100
FXUS62 KRAH 201748
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain along the East Coast through Wednesday
before a cold front approaches the region Thursday and brings
unsettled weather into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Monday...

Weak high pressure is currently centered along the coast of New
Jersey. This has allowed the wind to continue out of the northeast,
providing slightly below normal temperatures. A wide area of low
stratus from early this morning has transitioned to diurnal cumulus,
with slightly greater coverage across the eastern half of the
forecast area. These clouds should quickly dissipate around sunset,
leaving clear skies during the evening and into the overnight hours.
Considering there has been minimal change in the air mass, expect
that some cloud cover should regenerate overnight as temperatures
cool off. However, think that the coverage of clouds will be a bit
less than last night, primarily affecting areas along and east of I-
95. There could be some some patchy fog around, but there is not
enough confidence to include this in the forecast. Tonight`s low
should be similar to last night`s values and the coolest out of the
next seven days, in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

A weak mid-level trough will move across the cntl Appalachians and
Middle Atlantic through 12Z Wed, while ridging will otherwise extend
across the Southeast. Surface high pressure that will initially
extend along the Middle Atlantic coast will drift offshore and
result in the development of sely/"return" flow Tue afternoon and
mainly calm Tue night. High temperatures should respond and increase
into the lwr-mid 80s, followed by another night of strong
radiational cooling into mostly the mid-upr 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 311 AM Monday...

Upper pattern through the extended: Mid-level ridging over the
eastern US will shift offshore through Wednesday evening. A low-
amplitude upper trough will then lift through the Great Lakes
Thursday.  A short wave will then move through the TN Valley and
wash out over central NC Friday into the weekend.

Wednesday: The western ridge of an offshore sfc high will extend
light sswly flow across central NC on Wednesday.  Void of forcing
for ascent and lingering below normal PWAT, Wednesday will remain
dry.  Given the sswly flow, however, temps will begin to steadily
rise reaching the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight lows
in the lower 60s is expected.

Thursday through Sunday.  Ensembles continue to suggest the
potential for periods of rain over this time as upper forcing from
the aforementioned upper features move overhead. On Thursday, an
upper trough will lift through the Great Lakes. Some mid-level
energy associated with this feature may trickle down into our
northern locations and promote showers/storms later in the day.
However, the better forcing and low-level moisture transport appears
to stay well to our north, and thus continue to maintain just slight
chance to low chance POPs across our central to northern areas
during this time.

From Friday onward, ensembles continue to simulate a potentially
potent short wave riding through the TN Valley and eventually over
central NC through Sunday. Periods of rain look promising over this
temporal period, the details of which are hard to pin down at this
point.  Severe weather parameters are not popping off the charts at
this point, but periods of higher shear could promote some isolated
stronger storms especially Friday afternoon/evening.

There is high probabilities amongst ensembles that temperatures will
exceed the mid 80s both Thursday and Friday.  The quartile spread
widens a bit more over the weekend, likely due to differing
solutions wrt to any sfc boundaries. Regardless, temps will likely
remain in the 80s this upcoming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

TAF period: There are some lingering MVFR ceilings in the region,
but expect that all locations should generally have low VFR diurnal
cumulus through the afternoon. Conditions will clear out tonight,
then another round of restrictions are expected late tonight into
Tuesday morning. RWI is favored for restrictions based on
climatology and is the only site with IFR restrictions forecast.
Elsewhere, blended guidance and persistence from observations this
morning, giving a tempo site at other terminals for MVFR fog. Wind
will continue to be out of the northeast through the period,
becoming lighter/calm overnight.

Outlook: Wednesday morning could have yet another round of
restrictions, although most guidance is showing that most
restrictions should be contained to the eastern third of the state,
locally only impacting RWI. Otherwise, the forecast will be dry
through Thursday afternoon, then diurnally driven
showers/thunderstorms are expected into the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...Green