487
FXUS62 KRAH 011022
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure centered across the area will move offshore
late today and tonight. The high pressure will move out into the
western Atlantic by Monday, bringing warmer and more humid air,
along with mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across
the area through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

Overview: Canadian high pressure centered over the area this morning
will slide east and offshore during the afternoon. Aloft, amplified
ridging will quickly pace eastward across the area today as a
dampening mid-level shortwave trough over the MS Valley progresses
eastward into the Ohio and Tn Valleys.

Today: While the cP airmass in place will begin to moderate under
the influence of light southerly return flow, temperatures will
remain slightly below normal for the 1st day of meteorological
summer. Underneath thickening cirrus, Highs 80 to 85 with
dewpoints/humidity still quite comfortable for this time of year.

Tonight: Upper ridge axis will move offshore during the evening.
Modest moisture transport associated with the shortwave trough
moving east into the Appalachians will spread east into the western
portions of the state. The increasing moisture coupled with lift
from preceding MCVs/convectively-generated vorticity axis could lead
to some spotty light rain over the western Piedmont towards
daybreak. Elsewhere, it should remain dry with multi-layered
cloudiness developing across the area. Not as cool. Lows 55 to 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Saturday...

The aforementioned mid-level shortwave trough will continue to
dampen/weaken as it moves east through the southern and mid-Atlantic
states through the period. At the surface, a weak low pressure
trough develops along the lee of the mountains. Weak and difficult
to resolve perturbations may prove to be the primary drivers for
lift and associated isolated to widely scattered weak convection
Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night. Daytime heating within the
seasonably moist airmass should lead to weak buoyancy, mainly across
the NW Piedmont, which is where the highest PoPs will be retained
Sunday afternoon/evening. Then overnight, while the deepest moisture
gradually shift eastward towards eastern/coastal NC, model guidance
suggests an isolated/pop up shower is possible just about anywhere.

Highs ranging from upper 70s/near 80 NW to mid 80s SE. Lows in the
lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

A more typical summertime pattern will return to central North
Carolina during the week with diurnally driven thunderstorms through
much of the period as a result of several shortwaves moving through
the region. The highest chances for thunderstorms should come on
Wednesday and Thursday as an upper trough approaches the region.
Went with a small area of likely pops across the Triad on Wednesday
with a consistent model signal that the bulk of the precipitation
will be west of the region that day, but did not have enough
confidence to go with likely pops on Thursday considering the
convective nature of the system and stuck with high chance pops.
With the upper trough moving through, only kept chance pops on
Friday across eastern counties with slight chance pops elsewhere.
Temperatures should generally be seasonable with highs in the 80s,
although Tuesday and Thursday could see some lower 90s in southern
counties. Lows will consistently be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 622 AM Saturday...

There is high confidence in VFR conditions through the period.
Cirrus will thicken up and will become BKN by the late afternoon and
evening. Light and variable winds overnight will become southerly 5-
10 mph later today.


Outlook: Southerly moisture advection associated with a shortwave
trough moving into the region will lead to a chance of showers
Sunday into Sunday night, with the potential for a period of
associated sub-VFR restrictions, mainly at KINT and KGSO. Mainly
diurnal showers/storms could result in brief periods of sub-VFR
restrictions Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...CBL