946
FXUS62 KRAH 160604
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
200 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
An upper level disturbance will move in from the southwest Friday,
then an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Mid
South and Carolinas Saturday through Sunday, bringing unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Isolated afternoon and early evening showers possible; otherwise, a
dry day today with seasonable temperatures.

Weak surface high pressure will build into the region today and
tonight. A disturbance in the NNW flow aloft may produce some
afternoon and early evening cloudiness over the north-central and NE
sections of central NC. Some of the CAMS suggest a shower or two
may develop with some weak instability under the disturbance late
this afternoon into the early evening. However, any showers should be
widely scattered with QPF of only a few hundredths to a tenth for
those that get a brief shower. Highs today will return to near
normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mainly clear skies tonight
with light wind will lead to lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Increasing rain chances again late Friday and Friday night.

There is not significant model agreement on the timing of the shower
chances with the next approaching mid/upper trough. It appears that
Friday will be mostly dry with increasing POP late afternoon and
evening, especially in the west. Then, POP ramps up Friday night.
The latest CAM solutions are indicating some of the initial
heavier rains to remain from MS/AL to GA Friday night - where
the stronger convection may track. For now, expect increasing
cloudiness Friday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south and west
in the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms become likely
Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

Saturday and Sunday: Aloft, the sub-tropical ridge along/off the
East Coast will shift east as a potent s/w progresses generally
eastward through the central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic this
weekend. There are still some fairly significant differences between
the medium range model solutions wrt the timing and character of the
s/w. The GFS solution shows a closed low over the mid-MS Valley
early Sat, while the ECMWF has an open trough over the OH/TN Valley.
Consequently, the ECMWF is quicker to bring the s/w through the
region (Sat night) than the GFS (Sun). Also, the GFS low lingers off
the NC coast Sun night through Mon night, while the EC s/w lifts NE
out over the Atlantic. This will subsequently impact when the sub-
tropical ridge over the MS Valley is able to shift eastward. It
follows that the surface pattern is similarly variable between the
model solutions. Generally expect a warm front to lift newd through
the area early Sat, while a low (NAM and ECMWF) may also track enewd
through central NC Sat aft/eve. The GFS shows more of a weak surface
wave lifting through. In the GFS, the more potent surface low comes
through on Sun, while in the EC high pressure over the Northeast is
already ridging into NC. Either way, expect a low offshore Sunday
night, with cool high pressure ridging into NC on the back side of
it. Highs will generally range from low 70s to low 80s, while lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sat night could decrease to mid 50s/low
60s for Sun night.

Off the GFS forecast soundings: PWATS will be in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch
range from Sat morning through at least Sun afternoon, possibly
longer in the east. MUCAPE ranging from 200 J/Kg to 500 J/Kg, with
effective shear peaking around 40 kts Sat aft/eve. While there is
not a day 4 area of interest from the SPC, the discussion for
Saturday does mention some severe potential with the s/w, mainly
well to the south over GA/FL, but given the model differences there
is still a high degree of uncertainty. For Sun, the MUCAPE is
higher, generally around 1000 J/Kg, while effective shear may be
more in the 30-40 kt range. So, if the GFS solution comes to
fruition, there could be continued potential for storms again on
Sunday.


Monday onward: As the upper low/trough continues to drift offshore
and over the Atlantic, the sub-topical ridge will gradually shift
eastward, ridging through the mid-Atlantic through Tue night. A
couple of shortwaves will track eastward through the Great Lakes
from late Mon night through Wed, largely staying north of the area.
However the second, stronger s/w could clip central NC Wed/Wed
night, resulting in the next potential for showers/storms across the
area. Expect temperatures to moderate through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

24 hour TAF period: LIFR/IFR cigs to once again spread across
the area tonight, possibly dropping into the LIFR range around
daybreak. Cigs should lift to VFR around 15Z Thu. A period of some
MVFR vsbys will also be possible late tonight.

Looking ahead: VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. Showers
and sub-VFR conditions will return late Friday into Sunday, with
largely dry conditions returning sometime Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgrtt
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett/KC