038
FXUS65 KREV 262112
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
212 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm summer-like temperatures will continue through Memorial Day.
There is a 15-25% chance for a few storms late Monday afternoon,
but otherwise plan on dry conditions. Another low pressure system
will will bring dry and breezy conditions Tuesday with only a
slight cooldown for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures then warm
back to above normal levels by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* A warmup will continue into Memorial Day when we should see our
  warmest temperatures of the week with 70s and 80s areawide and
  thermal belts along the mid to upper slopes beginning to see
  that more summer-time warm/dry layer persisting overnight.
  Conditions have been dry for the month of May with only a trace
  at Reno thus far and it looks like many spots will end the month
  dry as well unless you are lucky enough to get underneath a
  shower Monday afternoon.

* A flat upper ridge will shift east on Monday and allow for a
  light southerly flow to return along the Sierra. While moisture
  south of the area is limited, a slight uptick in PWAT to
  0.50-0.60" along with more robust daytime heating should be
  sufficient to realize CAPEs on the order of 300-500 J/KG. This
  will result in a 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms
  along the Sierra and in the Lassen County convergence zone north
  of Susanville by mid to late afternoon Monday with a few cells
  into far western NV near the Pine Nuts and possibly the Virginia
  Range. Forcing is weak so cells will be dependent on local
  convergence (terrain/outflows). Gusty outflow winds 35-40 mph
  will be the main impact with any brief heavy rain cores remaining
  spotty.

* Guidance over the past few days has been consistent with a
  trough moving through the PacNW, brushing northern CA and the
  northern Great Basin Tue-Wed. For our area, this means a drier
  and more stable westerly flow will bring an end to the storm
  potential. Enhanced WSW breezes Tuesday afternoon will bring
  several hours of choppy conditions to area lakes. Only a slight
  cooling is anticipated Wed-Thu before things warm up again by
  next weekend.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* Operating period through 20Z Monday: VFR with light winds. There
  is a 10% chance of a shower/storm along the Sierra crest south
  of KMMH late this afternoon 23-02Z.

* Instability increases a bit Monday 22Z-03Z with a 15-25% chance
  of showers/storms along the eastern Sierra extending as far
  north as the Tahoe Basin and far western NV near KRNO/KCXP.
  Another area to watch is northwest Lassen County where an
  isolated cell or two is possible (10-20% chance). Best chances
  for lightning will be along the route KMEV-KBAN-KMMH. Erratic
  outflow gusts to 30-35 kts will be the main impacts.

* Enhanced WSW breezes late Tuesday as a trough brushes the
  northern Great Basin. There may be some light to occasionally
  moderate turbulence Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$