431
FXUS65 KREV 200956
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
256 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Several upper troughs driving across the region this week will
bring cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes, and a 10-20% chance
of afternoon showers and storms mainly across the Sierra. The run
up to the Memorial Day weekend will see a gradual warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This Week`s Headlines:

* The week starts off cooler with below average temperatures,
  rebounds by mid-week, drops temporarily, then once again trends
  warmer late this week into the Memorial day weekend.

* Typical afternoon breezes will continue through the week with
  Wednesday and Saturday looking to register the higher, more
  enhanced breezes.

* More typical for early summer weather, there is a chance of
  Sierra thunder this afternoon that may repeat itself late week.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

The week starts off with cooler temperatures, some 5-10 degrees
below seasonal average today. Colder more exposed areas under
mostly clear skies could see overnight lows drop into the 20s for
Sierra valleys with lower valleys across the Basin and Range and
even some typically colder valleys near Reno-Carson City dipping
close to or slightly below freezing for an hour or two prior to
daybreak Tuesday morning. A short wave ridge building quickly
over the region will at least bring a quick rebound in daytime
highs by Wednesday that are either slightly above or near seasonal
values. Look for upper 50s to 60s for Sierra valleys, and 70s to
low 80s for western NV valleys.

Although the region will remain mostly dry, the only exception will
be a 10-15% chance for some light showers and a storm or two
this afternoon across the Sierra south of the Lake Tahoe Basin to
Mono County. Showers and storms will quickly dissipate after
sundown.

As the short wave ridge hastens its exit across the Great Basin
through Wednesday, another short wave trough will quickly swing into
northeast CA and northern NV that increases shower chances (15-30%)
mostly along the OR/NV border Tuesday night. The system will also
bring that added boost of forcing to enhance afternoon westerly
breezes with gusts that mixes 30-40 mph gusts into western NV
valleys. Look for locally choppy surface conditions on area lakes
and impacts to activities during the afternoon that are sensitive
to these enhance breezes.

THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY:

As the short wave trough swings back-door like across northern CA
and NV, cooler air will once again be pulled south into the
region. Look for a quick dip in area temperatures to near normal
or a few degrees below seasonal values Thursday. Sierra locations
will see highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with most valley
locations across western NV in the low to mid 70s. Cannot rule out
a shower or two along the Sierra.

Going into the holiday weekend, temperatures will continue to trend
upwards. Blended guidance so far is projecting daytime highs to
stay near to or slightly above seasonal normals in upper 60s for
the Sierra and upper 70s for much of western NV. Although much of
the region will stay dry and warmer, some ensemble simulations
and blended guidance still desire to keep some shower and storm
chances going. -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions are projected to continue through the forecast
  period. Winds will be variable less than 5 kts this morning for
  main terminals, then increase from the N-NE 15-20 kts this
  afternoon before diminishing into the evening. FL100 winds will
  be northerly 15-25kts, turning northeast 10-15kts after 06Z.

* Several troughs will bring periods of cooler conditions and a
  10-15% chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly over the Sierra
  mountains throughout the week. Outside of any showers along the
  Eastern Sierra this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions will
  prevail. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$