266
FXUS65 KREV 220946
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
246 AM PDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of upper level short waves trailing across the region will
bring periods of breezy conditions to the region. Plan on
enhanced afternoon breezes Wednesday and Saturday. These troughs
will also bring low chance of afternoon showers and storms Friday.
Projected temperatures will hover around seasonal values the warm
late in the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Enhanced breezes will develop this afternoon and again Saturday
  afternoon bringing periods of choppy lakes and bumpy aviation
  conditions. Then typically breezy afternoons will carry through
  the holiday weekend.

* A 10-20% chance is still on the table for some Sierra showers,
  and isolated thunderstorm or two that initiates Friday afternoon
  with very low chances through the holiday weekend.

* If outdoors this holiday weekend enjoying the sunshine, be
  prepared for periods of gusty afternoon surface winds, and
  listen for that rumble of thunder just in case. When thunder
  roars, go indoors (sturdy building or vehicle, not a tent).

Details:

TODAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND:

A short wave ridge that passed quickly over the region overnight
will at least bring a quick boost of warmer air that will bring a
rebound in daytime highs this afternoon. Look for upper 50s to 60s
for Sierra valleys, and 70s to low 80s for western NV valleys. This
more seasonal taste of Spring will be interrupted by troughing from
a low pressure system dropping into ERN-OR/SRN-ID today that swings
an attendant dry cold front over the region. The passage of this
front will make an equally quick, but cooler, turn around in
temperatures for Thursday as its trailing western edge sweeps south
and spreads cooler air over the Sierra and western NV overnight into
Thursday. Sierra locations will see highs in the upper 50s to mid
60s with most valley locations across western NV in the low to mid
70s.

GUSTY WINDS: Temperatures are not the only element this front will
bring to our area. Increased thermal and pressure gradients will
bring enhanced breezes to northeast CA and western NV today. The
added forcing provided with this system will bring 30-40 mph gusts
that mix down into lower valley areas of western NV this afternoon
that shift more northerly and dissipate later this evening and
overnight. Look for locally choppy surface conditions on area
lakes and impacts to activities during the afternoon that are
sensitive to these enhance breezes. Pyramid Lake will see winds
gusting to 35 mph, therefore a lake wind advisory was issued from
2PM to 9PM.

STORM CHANCES: Although the region will remain mostly dry, the only
exception will the low-end chance (10-15%) later this afternoon for
some light showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two across the
eastern Sierra south of the lake Tahoe Basin to Mono County. This
pattern will repeat Friday with much a slightly better chance (10-
20%) for shower and storms that will include areas across NE
CA/NW NV to the OR border. Showers and storms that do develop
across the eastern Sierra/ Mono County may track across southern
Lyon and Mineral counties late in the afternoon, and quickly
dissipate after sundown.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Look for near seasonal daytime highs and
overnight lows with typical afternoon breezes continuing through the
holiday weekend. The shower and thunderstorm potential will ebb this
weekend with a <10% chance of occurring. If by chance a shower or
isolated thunderstorm pops up it will be fixed mostly across the
higher terrain of the Sierra. Some ensemble simulations are
stubbornly holding fast to that notion going into this weekend.
For the most part, the weekend is looking high and dry. If you do
have plans recreating in the Sierra back-country this weekend,
its advised to have an escape plan handy to minimize any harm
from the increased lightning threat from an errant storm forming
in your area.

BEYOND THIS WEEKEND:

Most current ensemble cluster simulations are indicating the
building of upper ridging across the western US early next week with
a continuance of dry conditions, much warmer temperatures, and
typical afternoon breezes region-wide. Although much of the region
will stay dry and warmer, some ensemble simulations and blended
guidance still desire to keep shower chances elevated with at least
a 10-15% chance for some sort of shower activity that includes an
isolated storm or two across higher terrain areas of the eastern
Sierra from the Lake Tahoe Basin south across Mono County. -Amanda

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions are projected to continue through this forecast
  period. The only exception to the otherwise flyable weather
  conditions is the gusty winds along a cold front dropping across
  the region. Hi-Res guidance projects afternoon through evening
  westerly winds that bring gusts of 25-30kt to both Sierra (KSVE-
  KTRK-KTVL) and western NV terminals (KRTS-KRNO-KCXP-KMEV).

* Along with the winds, localized moderate turbulence and LLWS
  with accompany the gusty conditions. W-NW FL100 winds will
  increase to 20-30kts then shift to the north 10-15kts after
  12-15Z.

* Several troughs will bring afternoon and evening chances for
  some showers and isolated thunderstorm, mostly over higher
  mountain areas south of the Lake Tahoe Basin to KMMH. A better
  potential (15-25% chance) for showers/storms will occur Friday
  afternoon. Low end chances (<10%) will carry into the weekend
  across the higher terrain along the Sierra crest as well.
  Outside of any afternoon/evening showers and isolated storms
  today and Friday, VFR conditions will prevail. -Amanda

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
     evening NVZ004.

CA...None.
&&

$$