Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
586 FXUS65 KREV 192150 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 250 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Several areas of low pressure will affect the region this week, bringing cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes, and a 10-20% chance of afternoon showers and storms through the upcoming work week. We`ll see a gradual warming trend with chances for showers into Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Light showers are currently ongoing along a slowly moving stationary front draped across north-central Nevada. These showers are currently affecting areas along and north of I-80 from east of Susanville to Lovelock. Most of the region will remain dry this afternoon and evening outside of these showers. Heading into Monday, a shortwave trough positioned off the southwest coast of California will merge with the longwave trough over the Great Basin, which will cool temperatures and bring chances for showers (15-20%) over the Eastern Sierra crest. High temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 60s across western Nevada and northeast California, with 60s in the Sierra. Brief height rises will lead to dry and mild conditions on Tuesday, with near-average temperatures likely across the region. Behind this shortwave ridge, another trough will push south along the west coast Wednesday, increasing chances for showers along the Oregon border (15-30% chance) and enhanced breezes across western Nevada, with gusts approaching 30 mph. As the trough axis swings across the Great Basin late Wednesday, we`ll see cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions Thursday, with highs in the upper-60s to low-70s across western Nevada and northeast California, and 60s in the Sierra. The only exception to these dry conditions will be a 10- 15% chance of showers across the Eastern Sierra. Into Memorial Day weekend, ensembles continue to show the aforementioned trough deepening over central-southern California/Nevada. How deep this trough becomes will direct how far south precipitation chances come. Blended model guidance over the last few runs has moved these chances around, from as far south as the Eastern Sierra, to as far north as the Oregon border. As of now, NBM guidance has most of the shower/thunderstorm chances (10-25%) remaining closer to the Oregon border. -Johnston && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions are expected through the evening, except for some showers north of I-80 between Susanville and Lovelock. Winds will remain 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts through the evening. * Several troughs will bring periods of cooler conditions and chances for showers throughout the week. Expect VFR conditions outside of possible showers along the Eastern Sierra on Monday afternoon and evening. -Johnston && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$