502
FXUS65 KREV 291949
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1249 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Very warm and dry weather will prevail through the upcoming
weekend with typical afternoon breezes. There is a potential for
more significant warming next week when highs could easily exceed
90 degrees across western NV valleys and reach 80 degrees in
Sierra communities. If you plan to be near area creeks and
streams, exercise caution as they will be moving fast and cold.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* Latest satellite imagery showed a shortwave trough moving
  through the PacNW/northern Rockies with a drier westerly flow
  set up across the region per ridge level wind sensors. This
  should help cap convection although GFS 500mb RH fields continue
  to show some shallow convective response near the White Mts
  late today and across southern Mono-Mineral counties Thu-Fri.
  ECS/GEFS maintain some low QPF for these areas Thu-Fri as well,
  although chances are less than 10%. A few buildups are more
  likely, but keep in mind it does not take much to get a storm or
  two this time of year. A general north gradient will prevail
  through Thursday with gusts remaining around 20 mph or less.

* A couple of shortwaves are forecast to brush the region Saturday
  and again Monday which will maintain a dry and warm pattern with
  afternoon breezes returning. Can`t completely rule out a shower
  or two along the Oregon border as these systems pass (10-30%
  chance). Temperatures will remain steady around 10 degrees above
  normal as we head into the first few days of June with Reno-
  Tahoe Intl Airport maintaining a 30-40% chance of hitting its
  first 90 degree high temperature this Friday.

* Ready for summer? Well, you may be in luck as ensemble clusters
  continue to show our first bout with significant warmth as
  500mb height anomalies push +15 DAM centered to our north.
  Afternoon temperatures could easily push to levels we would
  normally see in early July and could even be warmer. We are
  talking 80 degrees for Sierra valleys and 90s across western NV.
  And with all this heat and a majority of the ensembles clusters
  (90% chance) indicating a light south/southeast flow into the
  Sierra, there is the potential for a few storms as well in the
  Wed-Fri timeframe.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* Operational period through 06Z Friday: VFR conditions. A few
  cumulus buildups may occur near KMMH, but probability of a storm
  is less than 10%. General northwest-north gradient with daytime
  wind gusts staying around 15-20 kts or less.

* Dry and stable conditions will continue Friday into the weekend
  with more typical afternoon/evening W-SW breezes returning, gusts
  25-30 kts.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$