443
FXUS65 KREV 302017
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
117 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist
through early next week with a couple of passing systems enhancing
afternoon winds Saturday and again Monday. Confidence is high in
a significant warmup for the middle to late part of next week as
temperatures approach 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* UP-FRONT: No major changes. A couple of shortwaves will brush
  the area Sat/Mon and keeps things generally dry and warm with
  enhanced afternoon winds. Confidence is high in a big-time
  warmup next week with afternoon temperatures approaching 100
  degrees in hottest western NV valleys.

* THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK: Generally quiet through Monday as a
  couple of shortwave troughs moving through the PacNW brush our
  area and keep conditions dry and stable and temperatures near
  steady around 10 degrees above normal. Gusty west-southwest
  winds will accompany each system Saturday and again Monday
  afternoons with most gusts staying in the 25-35 mph range. This
  will result in a short period of local chop on area lakes,
  especially ones north of Hwy 50 where the gradients/mixing down
  of winds will be more pronounced.

* NEXT WEEK`S HEAT: Heat will be the headline mid-late next week
  as confidence is high in a strong ridge developing over the
  PacNW and 500mb height anomalies again approaching 15+ DAM per
  the latest ensemble clusters. MOS guidance is pushing mid 90s
  which may be muted somewhat by climatology as blended guidance
  has highs pushing 100 degrees for western NV valleys Wed-Sat,
  including a 30-50% chance of hitting 100 degrees at Reno-Tahoe
  Intl Airport. No wonder the ECMWF EFI is highlighting CA and
  western NV as these numbers are usually not seen until early-mid
  July. For some perspective... the average first date for 100
  degrees at the airport based on the latest 30-yr climate average
  is July 11th with the earliest recorded 100 degree reading of
  100 degrees set on June 7th, 2013.

* IMPACTS: Continue to exercise extreme caution if you are
  recreating near fast and cold streams as hypothermia can quickly
  catch you off guard if you are not prepared. Also get ready for
  at least moderate heat risks for the latter half of next week.
  Even overnights are only going to cool briefly. Last but not
  least, with this magnitude of heat, we cannot completely rule
  out a storm or two, especially Thu-Fri after we have had a
  couple of really hot days.

Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

* Operational Period Thru 06Z Sat: VFR conditions. A few cumulus
  buildups may occur near KMMH, but probability of a storm is less
  than 10%. General northwest-northeast gradient with gusts 15-20
  kts or less.

* A couple of low pressure systems will brush the region Sat/Mon
  with increased W-SW breezes, gusts 25-30 kts. Expect some light
  to brief moderate turbulence.

* Significant warmup Wed-Sat next week may lead to increased
  density altitude impacts as lower valleys approach 100 degrees
  and Sierra airports warm well into the 80s.

Hohmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$