843
FXUS65 KREV 082117
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
217 PM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

The early season heat will decrease through Monday before
rebounding in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms increase this weekend, with best chances near
the Oregon border and for areas south of US-50. Otherwise, near-
record or perhaps record breaking temperatures are expected to
develop again through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Record-to-near record temperatures certainly heated us up over
the past few days, but an upper-level trough moving into the
region this weekend will cool us down like we need it to. A shield
of high clouds began to stream into the region earlier today,
leading to a decrease in surface heating this afternoon. This
cooling trend will continue into Sunday, with temperatures
bottoming out in the low 90s across western Nevada and upper 70s
for Sierra communities. While this will technically be the coolest
day of the week, these temperatures are still more reminiscent of
those we`d see in the middle of summer. With these warm
temperatures, expect typical afternoon Zephyr winds each afternoon
with gusts 20-25 mph.

Showers and thunderstorms are already developing across the
Eastern Sierra this afternoon. Greatest coverage through early
evening is expected south of US-50 and east of US-95 in western
Nevada. Main threats from storms in the aforementioned areas
include gusty and erratic outflow winds to 30-40 mph, small hail,
and frequent lightning. Thunderstorms are also possible across the
Lassen County convergence zone into the Surprise Valley and far
northwestern Nevada. Model soundings indicate any cells that
develop here have notable chances to generate severe wind gusts in
excess of 58 mph given DCAPE values near 1400-1500 J/kg. Showers
and thunderstorms over these areas may continue into the evening
and overnight hours as the shortwave entering the region provides
additional forcing. Similar chances for showers and thunderstorms
are expected on Sunday for the aforementioned areas.

The shortwave trough moving into the region is expected to cut off
into a closed low off the coast of southern California by Monday.
This will allow high pressure to redevelop across the western US,
triggering another warm up through the work week. Temperatures
will once again soar to near-record territory as highs reach
magnitudes around 15 degrees above average. Precipitation chances
remain low through this period. Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

* Density altitude concerns will remain through this weekend as high
  temperatures remain around 10 degrees above average. Typical
  afternoon westerly winds prevail for all regional terminals, with
  gusts generally 15-25 kts.

* High clouds will remain over the area through the weekend as an
  upper low passes over the region. Expect cumulus buildups across
  the Basin & Range, Eastern Sierra, and far northern
  Lassen/Washoe counties. These areas will also see a 25-30%
  chance for showers and thunderstorms, with main threats being
  gusty and erratic outflow winds, small hail, and lightning.

Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$