Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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874 FXUS65 KRIW 082044 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 244 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to bubble up across southern and western WY this afternoon. These should dissipate around sunset. - More widespread showers and thunderstorms return during the day Sunday and continue into Monday. Some thunderstorms on Sunday could produce locally gusty winds and small hail. - High pressure builds into the middle of the week, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 159 PM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Showers have been able to develop in a band of instability across southern WY this afternoon, aided by sfc temperatures in the 80s. A few of these thunderstorms may still produce gusty winds, and a few storms moving into southwest WY may bring some isolated small hail as well. Sunday will see the ridge shift just to the east, opening the door for the next wave to sweep by to the north. The ridge placement will also bring a push of deeper moisture into the state, with forecast PW values above 0.7 inches. These factors will bring increased instability, resulting in more numerous showers and thunderstorms across most of the state. SPC has expended the marginal severe threat to cover the northern 2/3 of the state, with the main threat being gusty winds and isolated hail. The impact will start across NW WY later Sunday, spread east overnight, the focus impacts east of the Divide on Monday as the trough sweeps east. Once the trough moves east Monday evening, ridging returns to the northern Rockies, turning off the moisture feed and letting temperatures jump again into the 80s, possibly lower 90s through the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 FR conditions are expected through the period. Usual locations will see afternoon breezes with gusts around 20 to 25kts. Winds will taper off after 02Z and return to light drainage flows overnight. A few weak showers and isolated weak thunderstorms will develop across the south this afternoon, but no impacts are expected at any terminals. KCPR and KRKS have a 10% chance of seeing a brief shower or gusty outflow wind from these showers, but not enough confidence to include in the TAFs for now. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 207 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Rivers and creeks will remain on the high side today at Action Stage or below, but look to remain steady for now. SnoTel sites above 9000 ft continue to drop and are now below 10 inches of SWE. At this rate, the remaining snow at these sites could be gone in the next couple of days. The notable exception is sites in the Tetons and portions of Yellowstone NP, where 20-30 inches of snow remain on the ground. Will keep the Flood Advisories in effect as a result, likely continuing through the weekend. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hensley HYDROLOGY...LaVoie