705
FXUS65 KRIW 080408
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1008 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers continue across far southern and western
  Wyoming through this evening.

- A larger system moves along the US/Canada border on Sunday,
  bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms for most of
  the state Sunday and Monday.

- Warmer conditions through the next week will continue to melt
  any remaining snowcaps on higher elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The early summer snowmelt season continues to bring higher
running rivers across the state. Warm temperatures will continue
to melt off snowpacks, as low above 9000 feet remain above 40
degrees. Ridging continues to dominate a large portion of the
western US, but enough weak impulses will bring showers and a
few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, mainly along the higher
elevations. Some jet lift may bring a few stronger thunderstorms
this afternoon across Southwest Wyoming. The inverted-V sounding
notes the main threat in these storms would be some gusty winds
tapping the jet streak aloft.

Models have come together on the next weather system moving in
off the NW Pacific Coast Sunday into Monday. Lifting ahead of
this trough, along with daytime heating and ample moisture (PW
near 1.00") will bring some good rainfall to most of the state,
focusing on NW WY. Right now, best timing would be Sunday night,
before spreading east on Monday. SPC already has western WY in
a marginal risk for severe on Sunday, with decent shear and
lapse rates indicating both a wind and hail threat with stronger
storms.

Beyond this, models indicate the ridge building back northward
for most of next week, with temperatures again warming, and the
ridge suppressing most convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 952 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period for all TAF sites.
Light winds and ample upper level moisture and clouds overnight.
Winds will increase to 18-25kts for most after around 18Z with
daytime heating and mixing to the surface. Mid to upper level
ceilings throughout the afternoon and into the evening hours as
winds diminish after around 01-03Z with sunset and radiational
cooling. No other weather elements are expected during the
period at this time.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Lowe