Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY
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221 FXUS65 KRIW 072033 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 233 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers continue across far southern and western Wyoming through this evening. - A larger system moves along the US/Canada border on Sunday, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms for most of the state Sunday and Monday. - Warmer conditions through the next week will continue to melt any remaining snowcaps on higher elevations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The early summer snowmelt season continues to bring higher running rivers across the state. Warm temperatures will continue to melt off snowpacks, as low above 9000 feet remain above 40 degrees. Ridging continues to dominate a large portion of the western US, but enough weak impulses will bring showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, mainly along the higher elevations. Some jet lift may bring a few stronger thunderstorms this afternoon across Southwest Wyoming. The inverted-V sounding notes the main threat in these storms would be some gusty winds tapping the jet streak aloft. Models have come together on the next weather system moving in off the NW Pacific Coast Sunday into Monday. Lifting ahead of this trough, along with daytime heating and ample moisture (PW near 1.00") will bring some good rainfall to most of the state, focusing on NW WY. Right now, best timing would be Sunday night, before spreading east on Monday. SPC already has western WY in a marginal risk for severe on Sunday, with decent shear and lapse rates indicating both a wind and hail threat with stronger storms. Beyond this, models indicate the ridge building back northward for most of next week, with temperatures again warming, and the ridge suppressing most convection. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire period at all terminals. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist late this afternoon between 22Z and 04Z, with KJAC seeing the best chances (30%) for these showers and storms. Other showers and storms are possible across the west and southwest, with most of these being virga showers. A few gusty outflows are possible, however. Winds gusting 15 to 22kts will be common for most terminals during the late afternoon, with winds returning to light and variable or light drainage flows after 05Z. Cloud cover will increase Saturday morning for most terminals with several terminals seeing BKN high clouds 12Z Saturday ahead of a weak shortwave that will bring better shower chances by later Saturday afternoon and evening. Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence forecasts. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 242 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Another day of temperatures averaging 10 degrees above normal will continue high elevation snowmelt will continue the trend of rising rivers and minor flooding. We will continue the Flood Advisories for Medicine Lodge Creek, Ten Sleep Creek and the Popo Agie Rivers. Larger main stream rivers, especially the Wind and Little Wind Rivers, are seeing rises and will have to be monitored for possible rises today and into the weekend. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Straub AVIATION...Hensley HYDROLOGY...Hattings