777
FXUS61 KRLX 302216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
616 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into next week.
Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 615 PM Thursday...

Given afternoon mixing, clear skies tonight, and very light
SFC-H850 flow, have lowered overnight temperatures across much
of the FA to the lower end of guidance. With this in mind, have
expanded the Frost Advisory to included all of Pocahontas and
Randolph counties, as well as southeast Webster county, where
some mountain valley frost is anticipated. Additionally, tweaked
cloud cover through this evening to account for diurnal Cu field
across portions of the area. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

As of 140 PM Thursday...

Enjoy this quiet, sunny day amid high pressure with temperatures
in the 60s and lower 70s. Tonight will be quite chilly with
overnight lows dropping into the 30s in the mountains and the
40s in the lowlands. A frost advisory is in effect in the higher
elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties from 6-12Z
Friday for the potential for frost development, so it will be a
good idea to protect sensitive vegetation overnight.

Friday will be similar to today with high pressure in control.
Expect dry conditions with temperatures reaching the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

Friday night and Saturday remain mostly dry with high pressure
overhead. Cool morning lows and warm afternoon temperatures are
in the forecast. Temperatures will go from the upper 40s and 50s
in the morning to the low to mid 80s by afternoon; upper 60s to
upper 70s in the mountains.

Clouds will gradually build in from west to east through out the
day Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the Midwest. A
surface trough will extend overhead Saturday night allowing for
PoPs to increase overnight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast as a result and will likely be scattered
to widespread for Sunday.

QPF output is light at this time with less than a quarter of an
inch being picked up with this system for most locations at
this time. PWATs are however forecasted to be between 1.15" to
1.50" Sunday depending on which guidance is viewed. Amounts
will likely go up with future updates, but at this time water
issues are not expected. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall
sits just outside of our forecast area to the west for Sunday
morning and would not be surprised to see it introduced across
our far western counties if amounts do increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high
pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start
the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across
northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north
through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede
during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the
mountains.

A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely
next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures
in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands.
Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each
afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a
few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold
front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a
few degrees after its passage.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 131 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF
period. However, dense fog is expected to develop in the
sheltered mountain river valleys overnight. This can drop
visibility to IFR conditions from 6-12Z in places like KEKN.
Otherwise, weather should be largely calm through the TAF
period with calm to light winds overnight into Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog overnight into Friday
morning may vary from the forecast. Fog may develop in more
terminals than currently expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...GW/JMC
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JMC