096
FXUS61 KRLX 301036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
636 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Have made a few changes to temperatures and dewpoints based on
current observations. Otherwise, the near term forecast is
generally on track this morning.

As of 215 AM Thursday...

Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains,
should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to
develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before
dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and
stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise.

While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will
be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the
Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another
shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the
day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the
surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night.

Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with
daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and
mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected
to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the
lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost
could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

Dry and quiet conditions expected Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a
broad surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes,
south into the OH Valley and West Virginia. Temperatures will feel 5
degrees cooler than normal on Friday and Friday night under weak
northerly flow. However, boundary layer flow veers from the
southwest by Saturday morning, ahead of an approaching upper level
trough. This will provide a warming trend into the weekend. A clean
transient upper level ridge will support stable conditions Saturday.
Therefore, expect a warm up Saturday afternoon under sunny skies
with highs reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into
the upper 60s higher elevations.

Boundary layer southwest flow increases Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing descent moist and warm advection to the area, while the
upper ridge moves east, allowing a sharp trough to cross the area
during the same time. The upper level support and available moisture
could allow for chances of showers Saturday night, increasing in
coverage and intensity Sunday.  Associated upper level forcing will
combine with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches to sustain showers and
few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

Some guidance suggests a shortwave within the upper trough will push
a cold front Sunday, pushing convection east of the mountains by
Sunday night. However, other guidance points at the stalling cold
front north of the area by Monday. Accepted NBM temperatures with a
warming trend, Sunday to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 221 AM Thursday...

After Sunday, models show different solutions at the surface
and at the upper levels, some stalling the front north of the
area, while others push a cold front east. Some bring upper
level shortwave passing by. Due to uncertainty of model
solutions, will maintain chance PoPs during the afternoon and
evening Monday through the rest of the period. Accepted NBM
temperatures with a warming trend, reaching the mid to upper 80s
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Stratus and valley fog will erode this morning, allowing VFR
conditions to return across the area. High pressure building in from
the north will then maintain VFR conditions for the rest of the day.
Around 5-12kt northwesterly winds are expected during the day, with
occasional gusts into the 15-20kt range possible along the
mountains this afternoon.

Tonight, calm to light winds and clear skies could facilitate the
development of river valley fog. While VFR should persist
outside of fog, IFR or worse conditions will be possible
wherever fog does develop.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement this morning may vary
from the forecast. Extent and intensity of fog tonight may also
vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 05/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JLB
NEAR TERM...JLB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JLB