170
FXUS61 KRLX 021734
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
134 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers through this evening. Warmer with a brief dry spell for
most Monday into Tuesday, before unsettled weather returns by
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather will continue this afternoon into early this
evening with scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
with the best chances along the periphery of some modestly enhanced
H850 across the southern half of the forecast area. Activity should
wane with loss of heating this evening, with only isolated activity
in the vicinity of the mountains. With recent rainfall and rather
dead flow overnight, will see at least patchy fog developing heading
into Sunday morning, although remaining low level cloudiness should
keep it from becoming too thick outside of the valleys.

Flow remains weak through a bulk of the day Monday with daytime
heating supporting just isolated pop-up afternoon shower and
thunderstorms - most locations will stay dry however.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A large ridge of high pressure will build over the area Tuesday, and
southerly flow at the surface will bring warmth and mainly dry
conditions. The ridge will begin to move east on Wednesday and a
shortwave will approach from the west. This will provide
support for showers and thunderstorms across the region. With
PWATs expected to be anywhere from 1.75-2.00" across the
lowlands and 1.5-1.75" across the mountains, we will have to
watch for downpours and the potential for flooding. Right now,
WPC has our region in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for
day 4. The severe weather threat looks minimal Wednesday due to
weak flow aloft and minimal CAPE. Both Tuesday and Wednesday
will be hot and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s across
the lowlands and dew points in the 60s to lower 70s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1135 AM Sunday...

A cold front will be approaching from the west Thursday, which can
trigger additional showers and thunderstorms. Models show the high
PWAT air exiting the area to the east early Thursday morning ahead
of the front, which may mitigate the threat for flooding. However,
that still remains uncertain at this time. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday evening. High
temperatures Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 80s.

Although the cold front is expected to cross the area Thursday,
models are showing a large upper-level low lingering over the Great
Lakes into next weekend. Because of this, we included chances for
showers each afternoon. The low heights aloft will keep temperatures
somewhat cooler, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s to near
80 in the lowlands through the weekend. Mountains will be even
cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. There will be times of
sunshine, but energy rotating around the upper low will keep
some clouds around.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through
early this evening with the best chances for direct hits on
terminals at CRW/CKB/EKN. Overall risk of thunder appears low enough
to not warrant inclusion of VCTS/TSRA at this time. Activity wanes
with loss of heating tonight.

Despite lingering low level cloudiness, a near saturated boundary
layer and dead flow will support fog development overnight, perhaps
locally dense in some valleys. Will include mostly IFR impacts
heading into Sunday morning.

Winds remain light, less than 4KTs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Locally heavy downpours could briefly
reduce visibility to IFR this afternoon. Fog may be more
dense for Sunday morning than advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR conditions are possible in showers and thunderstorms
at times Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JMC
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP