672
FXUS61 KRLX 311616
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1216 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work
week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 AM Friday...

Frost advisory will expire on time at 8 AM this morning with
temperatures rising quickly with morning mixing across the
mountain valleys.

As of 605 AM Friday...

GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more
widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. The
fog will lift and dissipate 730-9 AM. Temperatures in the
northern mountain valleys were also low enough to support frost,
at least away from rivers. The remainder of the forecast is on
track with high pressure in control.

As of 220 AM Friday...

Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be
on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected
early this morning.

High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this
period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high
pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return
light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper
level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and
tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west.

Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or
close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and
temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys
tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will
again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points
then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep
mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

A 500-mb shortwave and an associated surface low will approach from
the west Sunday, bringing another chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Cloudy skies will keep daytime temperatures in the
70s for most. Expect anywhere from 0.25-0.50" south of I-64 and 0.50-
0.75" for places north of I-64. Drier and warmer weather should
return Monday as the shortwave exits to the east and a ridge builds
aloft. Highs in the 80s will return across the lowlands with the
upper 70s expected in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1214 PM Friday...

With surface high pressure sliding to the east, unsettled weather
will return across the state for the rest of the week with
summertime heat and humidity building. Expect daily chances of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms with warm, southerly flow at the
surface and several weak disturbances passing aloft. It looks
like Wednesday will be the worst day for heat and humidity with
highs in the 80s for most and dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. A large cold front will sweep across the eastern 1/3
of the country Thursday. Behind the cold front, temperatures
should settle down closer to average and precipitation chances
should begin to decrease.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 605 AM Friday...

GOES-R nighttime microphysics imagery evinces a somewhat more
widepsread river valley fog than previously anticipated. This
showed up intermittently at EKN and has also showed up at
CRW. The fog should lift/dissipate 12-13Z.

High pressure will otherwise promote mainly VFR conditions amid
light flow this period.

Calm conditions early this morning  will give way to light
north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then
calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow
aloft through today will become light and variable to east
tonight. This and high cloud should limit river valley steam
fog tonight but, with higher dew points, it cannot be entirely
ruled out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Burn off of fog first thing this morning
could vary a bit. River valley steam fog overnight tonight may
impact EKN and CRW.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and
perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JP
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM