Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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777 FXUS61 KRLX 302216 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 616 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into next week. Above normal temperatures in store next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 615 PM Thursday... Given afternoon mixing, clear skies tonight, and very light SFC-H850 flow, have lowered overnight temperatures across much of the FA to the lower end of guidance. With this in mind, have expanded the Frost Advisory to included all of Pocahontas and Randolph counties, as well as southeast Webster county, where some mountain valley frost is anticipated. Additionally, tweaked cloud cover through this evening to account for diurnal Cu field across portions of the area. The rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 140 PM Thursday... Enjoy this quiet, sunny day amid high pressure with temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s. Tonight will be quite chilly with overnight lows dropping into the 30s in the mountains and the 40s in the lowlands. A frost advisory is in effect in the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph counties from 6-12Z Friday for the potential for frost development, so it will be a good idea to protect sensitive vegetation overnight. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure in control. Expect dry conditions with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Thursday... Friday night and Saturday remain mostly dry with high pressure overhead. Cool morning lows and warm afternoon temperatures are in the forecast. Temperatures will go from the upper 40s and 50s in the morning to the low to mid 80s by afternoon; upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Clouds will gradually build in from west to east through out the day Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the Midwest. A surface trough will extend overhead Saturday night allowing for PoPs to increase overnight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast as a result and will likely be scattered to widespread for Sunday. QPF output is light at this time with less than a quarter of an inch being picked up with this system for most locations at this time. PWATs are however forecasted to be between 1.15" to 1.50" Sunday depending on which guidance is viewed. Amounts will likely go up with future updates, but at this time water issues are not expected. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall sits just outside of our forecast area to the west for Sunday morning and would not be surprised to see it introduced across our far western counties if amounts do increase. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM Thursday... Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the mountains. A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands. Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a few degrees after its passage. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 131 PM Thursday... VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF period. However, dense fog is expected to develop in the sheltered mountain river valleys overnight. This can drop visibility to IFR conditions from 6-12Z in places like KEKN. Otherwise, weather should be largely calm through the TAF period with calm to light winds overnight into Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development of fog overnight into Friday morning may vary from the forecast. Fog may develop in more terminals than currently expected. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI UTC 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 EDT 1HRLY 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday for WVZ522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...GW/JMC SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JMC