120
FXUS61 KRLX 310620
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
220 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then
disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work
week. Above normal temperatures in store next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be
on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected
early this morning.

High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this
period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high
pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return
light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper
level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and
tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west.

Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or
close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and
temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys
tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will
again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points
then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep
mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

Friday night and Saturday remain mostly dry with high pressure
overhead. Cool morning lows and warm afternoon temperatures are
in the forecast. Temperatures will go from the upper 40s and 50s
in the morning to the low to mid 80s by afternoon; upper 60s to
upper 70s in the mountains.

Clouds will gradually build in from west to east through out the
day Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the Midwest. A
surface trough will extend overhead Saturday night allowing for
PoPs to increase overnight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms
return to the forecast as a result and will likely be scattered
to widespread for Sunday.

QPF output is light at this time with less than a quarter of an
inch being picked up with this system for most locations at
this time. PWATs are however forecasted to be between 1.15" to
1.50" Sunday depending on which guidance is viewed. Amounts
will likely go up with future updates, but at this time water
issues are not expected. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall
sits just outside of our forecast area to the west for Sunday
morning and would not be surprised to see it introduced across
our far western counties if amounts do increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Thursday...

Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high
pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start
the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across
northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north
through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede
during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the
mountains.

A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely
next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures
in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands.
Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each
afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a
few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold
front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a
few degrees after its passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Friday...

High pressure will promote mainly VFR conditions amid light
flow this period. Tygart river valley steam fog at EKN is
forecast to lower visibility to MVFR 08-12Z, with IFR 09-11Z
early this morning. River valley steam fog is less likely to
impact CKB, PKB, HTS and CRW, with none at all anticipated for
BKW. Any fog that does develop early this morning
lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z.

Calm conditions early this morning  will give way to light
north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then
calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow
aloft through today will become light and variable to east
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high
otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of river
valley steam fog early this morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 05/31/24
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and
perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ522>526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC/JMC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM