Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
120 FXUS61 KRLX 310620 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 220 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms Sunday into the next work week. Above normal temperatures in store next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Friday... Early morning temperatures and the frost advisory appear to be on track. Nothing more than river valley steam fog is expected early this morning. High pressure surface and aloft promotes dry weather this period, with clear sky through much of today. Surface high pressure drifting east of the area tonight allows for return light east to southeast low level flow, while the mid-upper level ridge axis passing overhead later this afternoon and tonight allows high, thin cirrus to encroach from the west. Central guidance temperatures and dew points looked on or close, except dew points a little lower this afternoon, and temperatures and dew points a little lower in the valleys tonight. The low level return flow and high thin cirrus will again keep valley fog limited again despite higher dew points then this morning, but the higher dew points should keep mountain valley low temperatures high enough to preclude frost. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Thursday... Friday night and Saturday remain mostly dry with high pressure overhead. Cool morning lows and warm afternoon temperatures are in the forecast. Temperatures will go from the upper 40s and 50s in the morning to the low to mid 80s by afternoon; upper 60s to upper 70s in the mountains. Clouds will gradually build in from west to east through out the day Saturday as a disturbance approaches from the Midwest. A surface trough will extend overhead Saturday night allowing for PoPs to increase overnight into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast as a result and will likely be scattered to widespread for Sunday. QPF output is light at this time with less than a quarter of an inch being picked up with this system for most locations at this time. PWATs are however forecasted to be between 1.15" to 1.50" Sunday depending on which guidance is viewed. Amounts will likely go up with future updates, but at this time water issues are not expected. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall sits just outside of our forecast area to the west for Sunday morning and would not be surprised to see it introduced across our far western counties if amounts do increase. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1245 PM Thursday... Models diverge a bit going into the long-term as a strong high pressure system moves off the coast of the Carolinas to start the new work week. A back door front looks to set up across northern WV going into Monday morning before it lifts up north through the day. As such, precipitation chances look to recede during the day, minus chances for showers and storms along the mountains. A warming trend with above average temperatures looks fairly likely next week. Tuesday and Wednesday look to showcase temperatures in the upper 80s for typical warm spots across the lowlands. Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms remain each afternoon due to the above normal temperatures, as well as a few shortwaves that will move through the ridge pattern. A cold front approaches Thursday and temperatures look to decrease a few degrees after its passage. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 220 AM Friday... High pressure will promote mainly VFR conditions amid light flow this period. Tygart river valley steam fog at EKN is forecast to lower visibility to MVFR 08-12Z, with IFR 09-11Z early this morning. River valley steam fog is less likely to impact CKB, PKB, HTS and CRW, with none at all anticipated for BKW. Any fog that does develop early this morning lifts/dissipates by ~ 12Z. Calm conditions early this morning will give way to light north to northeast surface flow later this morning, and then calm to light and variable to southeast tonight. Light flow aloft through today will become light and variable to east tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog early this morning, high otherwise. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent, timing, and intensity of river valley steam fog early this morning may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/31/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Tuesday. IFR possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, overnight Monday night and early Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for WVZ522>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC/JMC NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...TRM