064
FXUS61 KRNK 021900
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region Thursday with dry
weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no
additional rain is forecast until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Lingering shower/storm potential along and east of the
Blue Ridge this evening...otherwise clearing with patchy fog.

2) Drier air infiltrates next 24 hours...less humid Thursday.

Surface cold has moved into eastern VA/NC. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are ongoing along and east of the front.
Clearing has been taking place over our forecast area.

Water Vapor imagery shows significant drying aloft. This should
increase entrainment and limit CAPE for the remainder of the
day. Can`t rule out a stray shower between now and sunset, but
coverage should be isolated.

The front drifts to the coast tonight...High pressure building
into the forecast area from the northwest. Aside for some patchy
fog tonight, little or no sensible weather is expected through
Thursday. Any morning clouds and fog should mix into what
should be a dry afternoon with dewpoints falling into the 50s to
lower 60s...temperatures seasonably warm for July, but not
oppressive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and mostly clear conditions into the weekend

A surface high pressure system from the west will travel eastward
into the Atlantic to provide mostly clear and calm conditions for
the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Dew points may be
a little lighter on July 4, with values as low as the upper 50s
along and west of the Blue Ridge, but these will recover into the
60s by the weekend. 500mb heights will build up as a large upper
level ridge forms and stretches over the southwestern CONUS.
Temperatures will increase with region wide highs into the 80s with
the warmest values in the upper 80s in the Piedmont and Southside VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot conditions return next week

2) Precipitation chances increase early next week

This part of the forecast is a bit complicated as it is dependent on
the actions of approaching systems. One is a storm disturbance off
the Floridian coast which may make its way into the Carolinas and
potentially offer a precipitation chance for the more southeastern
counties. The current most likely path of this system keeps it along
the Carolina coast so winds may change in direction (not so much
magnitude) as a result of the system`s influence. The other system
involves a long cold front connected by surface low pressure systems
that approaches from the northwest. Model guidance is in
disagreement on whether this front passes through or stalls and
becomes stationary. The earliest the front will be in the Mid-
Atlantic region will be by Monday and if it stalls in our vicinity,
it could provide a boundary region for continual thunderstorm
development. Another upper level ridge is set to take shape over the
southeastern CONUS and with veering of winds there will be an
increase in moisture and diurnal heating to provide afternoon
convective thunderstorms. However, if the front moves through, there
is an opportunity for relatively cooler and drier air to enter and
the time frame for showers narrows down. Confidence in the forecast
will increase as we approach the weekend.

As previously mentioned, if the front stalls or never goes through,
expect temperatures to be hot next week, especially for areas along
and east of the Blue Ridge. Surface high temperatures may get into
the mid-90s for this part of the area while areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge may get into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Surface cold front as moved into eastern VA/NC. Showers and
storms are still ongoing along this front but movement of the
activity is headed away from the area. Some of the convective
allowing models produce some isolated showers along and east of
the Blue ridge this evening (in the wake of the front), but
coverage is not enough to place in the TAFs attm.

For tonight, lingering moisture may result in areas of fog,
especially across the piedmont, and within the mountain valleys.
Any fog or stratus that forms should dissipate by mid-morning
Thursday leaving us with widespread VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM