003
FXUS61 KRNK 130002
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
802 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain its presence over the area into
Thursday. A backdoor front tracks south through the mid-Atlantic
Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly dry. Scattered clouds. Increasing humidity.

Evening sounding still shows pronounce capping inversion. So, in
spite of increasing boundary dewpoints, the cap is not
permitting deep convection. Aside for sct-bkn cumulus, little or
no rain potential. Above the boundary layer it was dry with
exception of some upper level jet cirrus.

SCT-BKN low clouds expected persist through the overnight...the
moisture remaining trapped underneath the subsidence inversion.
Winds will be light. Dewpoints are higher, compared to last
night, thus temperatures tonight will not be as cool. Looking at
lows ranging from the 50s mountains to the lower 60s foothills
and mid 60s piedmont. May see some patchy fog across river
bottoms toward dawn. Mountain valleys of WV will have the best
chance for fog.

Another shortwave/vort tracks across Thursday. Enough low level
moisture should be available to trigger some isolated convection
along/west of the Blue Ridge, but appears only a couple of
high-res solutions are hinting at this. Given the heating and
environment, leaning toward a few showers/storms popping up but
majority of you will remain dry.

Temperatures start to warm a bit reaching the 80s for most of
the area, with some 70s in the higher mountains.

Forecast confidence is average on pops/sky cover, but above
average on temps/winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and mostly dry weather expected.

Heights will build by the end of the week within an overall westerly
flow. A shortwave passing through the Great Lakes will push a front
south late Friday and will see slightly cooler temperatures again
Saturday.

Friday likely to feature plenty of low 90s across the Piedmont as
850mb temperatures range +18C to +20C ahead of an approaching front
dropping south out of the Ohio Valley. Not overly concerned with
high indices at this time owing to the fact that dew points will not
be particularly high. With plenty of daytime heating, should have at
least some marginal instability, resulting in a few scattered
afternoon thunderstorms, mainly across the mountains.

Slightly cooler air behind the front as high pressure builds to the
north on Saturday. However, still expecting highs in the mid/upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers and storm chances increase through mid-week.

2) Hot and humid by mid-week


Ridging begins to build over the southeast late in the weekend into
early next week as high pressure slides offshore. Ridging will
continue to build into Tuesday/Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly
decent agreement of the 594dm ridge firmly anchoring in place
through the end of the long term period.

With high pressure east in the Atlantic, flow remains southerly and
should have higher moisture advection into the area as well. This
will drive dew points up, along with the chance of afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the 24 hour valid TAF. Brief period
of IFR fog at LWB by 10-12z Thu...the cooler mountain valleys
supporting fog formation.

Forecast confidence is high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through Monday. Exception...chance of storms
Friday into Friday evening that may bring sub-VFR especially
north of a line from BKW-ROA-LYH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...BMG
LONG TERM...BMG
AVIATION...PM